我国对外直接投资与进出口贸易的非线性动态效应分析

Nonlinear dynamic assessment of Chinese foreign direct investment and import and export trade

对外直接投资与进出口贸易的关系一直是学界讨论但又未能得到一致答案的话题。选取2005年1月至2019年12月的月度数据,采用非线性自回归分布滞后模型(NARDL)分析了两者之间的关系,认为从长期来看,对外直接投资对我国的进出口影响总体上表现为贸易创造效应,当前中国对外直接投资具有垂直型对外直接投资的典型特征,从短期来看,对外直接投资下降时产生的进口抑制作用更大;与市场导向型直接投资相比,我国成本抑制型直接投资所产生的进出口贸易创造效应更大,短期对发达经济体直接投资受到冲击时,中国对发达经济体的出口调整滞后期数更长。

The relationship between foreign direct investment and import and export trade has been an academic topic but has not been defined in consensus.Selecting the monthly data from January 2005 to December 2019 and using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag(NARDL)model,the thesis analyzes the relationship between them.It is considered that in the long run,the impact of foreign direct investment featured vertical investment on Chinese import and export trade is creative.In the short run,exports are less affected than imports when foreign direct investment is sharped.Compared with foreign direct investment targeting market,foreign direct investment featured cost restraint has more trade creation effect on import and export trade in China.When the foreign direct investment on the developed economics crashes in a short term,it will lead to an increasing lag in the export trade.