京津冀城市群发展效率评价及空间格局研究

Development Efficiency Evaluation and Spatial Pattern Analysis of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration

本文借助京津冀城市群13个城市2009—2019年面板数据,运用超效率SBM、云模型、热点分析、趋同检验和GWR回归等方法,评价京津冀城市群发展效率,探究空间格局和驱动机理。结果表明:(1)京津冀城市群整体发展态势良好,先后经历“震荡期”和“提升期”;(2)城市发展效率存在“马太效应”,具有明显的高低分区,但整体提升明显,同时出现热点聚集和冷点四周分散的分布格局;(3)京津冀城市群发展效率的驱动因素存在空间异质性,对外开放程度、产业结构、基础设施建设对城市发展产生促进作用,资源禀赋地区随着资源红利消失对城市发展产生抑制作用。

Based on the panel data of 13 cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 2009 to 2019, this paper evaluates the development efficiency of this urban agglomeration by using super efficiency SBM, cloud model, hot spot analysis, convergence test and GWR regression, and explores the spatial distribution pattern and driving factors. The results show that:(1) The overall development trend of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is good, which has experienced "oscillation period" and "improvement period";(2) The "Matthew effect" of urban development efficiency is significant, with obvious high and low zoning, but the overall improvement is obvious. At the same time, there are hotspot cluster areas dominated by Beijing, Tianjin and Cangzhou and scattered cold spots around;(3) The driving factors of the development efficiency of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration have spatial heterogeneity. The degree of external opening-up, industrial structure and infrastructure construction promote the development of cities.With the disappearance of resource dividends, resource curse appears in resource endowment areas, which inhibits the development of cities.