土耳其进取性地缘政治外交析论

A Primary Exploration on Turkey’s Diplomacy of Geopolitical Aggressiveness

土耳其系欧亚大陆地缘政治“枢轴国家”,长期发挥跨地域战略作用。埃尔多安自掌控正发党政权以来,陆续推出“2023战略愿景”和“2053战略愿景”,其目标是使土耳其最终跃升为一支世界性力量。为此,土耳其采用突出重点、带动全方位进取性地缘政治的外交策略,通过政治、经济、军事、文化等领域综合施策,其进取性地缘政治外交取得诸多成效:在黑海和外高加索确立强势存在,掌握了土耳其在该地区天然气开发、输气通道、军事冲突调停等方面的主动权;依托北非、东非“桥头堡”,将影响力渗透至非洲全域;与卡塔尔、巴基斯坦“组团”介入阿富汗变局,延续了在阿富汗的长期影响力;提振了土耳其在突厥语国家的领袖地位;努力在伊斯兰世界发挥引领力;谋取北约内“特殊地位”,拓展了特立独行的外交空间。土耳其近年来的地缘政治进取虽收到明显成效,但也面临着来自美国、欧洲大国、阿拉伯国家的阻力,俄罗斯、伊朗亦对土耳其地缘政治进取怀有戒心,均需土耳其加以重视与应对。

Turkey is a geo-strategic pivot in Eurasia and has long played a strategic role across the neighboring regions.Since Erdo?an took control of the AKP,he has launched the“Strategic Vision 2023”and“Strategic Vision 2053”,with the goal of making Turkey a global power.To this end,Turkey has adopted a focused,all-round aggressive geopolitical strategy.It has achieved many results in its aggressive geopolitical diplomacy through a comprehensive approach in the political,economic,military and cultural fields.First,Turkey has achieved a strong presence in the Black Sea and Transcaucasia,establishing its initiative in gas development,gas transmission routes and military conflict mediation in the region.Second,Turkey has relied on the“bridgehead”role of North and East Africa to extend its influence throughout Africa.Third,Turkey has continued its longstanding influence in Afghanistan by intervening with Qatar and Pakistan.Fourth,Turkey has boosted its position as a leader in the Turkic world.Fifth,Turkey is striving to play a leading role in the Islamic world.Sixth,Turkey is seeking a“special status”in NATO and expanding its maverick diplomatic space.At the same time,Turkey is facing resistance from the United States,Europe and Arab countries,and Russia and Iran are also wary of Turkey’s geopolitical advancement.Turkey needs to pay attention to and respond to these new developments.