2015~2019年河南省PM_(2.5)时空特征与驱动因素分析

Analysis on Spatial-temporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of PM_(2.5) in Henan Province from 2015 to 2019

PM_(2.5)是雾-霾中的主要成分,河南省已成为PM_(2.5)污染防治重点地区之一.基于2015~2019年河南省PM_(2.5)浓度数据,使用空间自相关和空间热点探测方法分析其时空特征,引入地理探测器方法分析气象因素、空气质量因素和社会因素对PM_(2.5)浓度的解释力度.结果表明,河南省2015~2019年PM_(2.5)浓度整体呈现降低趋势,高污染天数减少和低污染天数增加,高污染逐步向中污染转化;PM_(2.5)浓度具备明显的空间聚集特征,全局空间自相关指数先降后升,空间热点集中在豫北地区(安阳市、鹤壁市、新乡市和焦作市),空间冷点集中在豫西地区(三门峡市、洛阳市和南阳市);空间重心转移呈现出北上的趋势;单因子探测显示,在9个影响因子中,土地利用类型(解释力度为0.511,下同)、降水量(0.312)和NO_(2)浓度(0.277)是影响PM_(2.5)浓度最明显的因子,其余因子影响力排序为PM10浓度(0.255)、温度(0.209)、风速(0.183)、臭氧浓度(0.121)、GDP(0.073)和人口数量(0.046);交互作用探测显示,多因子共同作用比单因子影响更加显著.结果可以为治理河南省大气污染提供理论支持.

PM_(2.5) is the main component of haze,and Henan Province has become one of the key areas of PM_(2.5) pollution control.Based on the PM_(2.5) concentration data of Henan Province from 2015 to 2019,spatial autocorrelation,spatial hot spot detection,and other methods were used to analyze its temporal and spatial characteristics,and the geodetector method was introduced to analyze the interpretation strength of meteorological factors,air quality factors,and social factors on PM_(2.5) concentration.The results showed that:from 2015 to 2019,the concentration of PM_(2.5) in Henan Province showed an overall downward trend,the days of high pollution decreased,the days of low pollution increased,and the high pollution gradually transformed into medium pollution.The concentration of PM_(2.5) had obvious characteristics of spatial aggregation.The five-year global spatial autocorrelation index first dropped and then rose,and the spatial hot spots were concentrated in northern Henan(Anyang,Hebi,Xinxiang,and Jiaozuo);the spatial cold spots were concentrated in western Henan(Sanmenxia,Luoyang,and Nanyang).The shift in space center of gravity showed a trend of going north.Single-factor detection showed that among the nine influencing factors,land use type(0.511),precipitation(0.312),and NO_(2)(0.277)were the most obvious factors affecting PM_(2.5) concentration,and the other factors were PM_(10)(0.255),temperature(0.209),wind speed(0.183),O_(3)(0.121),GDP(0.073),and population(0.046).Interaction detection showed that the combined effect of multiple factors was more significant than that of single factors.These results can provide theoretical support for the control of air pollution in Henan Province.