基于文本量化的中国农业面源污染治理政策演进特征分析

Analysis to Evolution Characteristics of Policies for Controlling Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution in China:Based on Text Quantification

【目的】基于1978-2018年国家部门颁布的365项农业面源污染治理政策,分析中国农业面源污染治理政策的演进特征,并对政策文件的行政规制型、经济激励型和技术支持型措施进行重点剖析。【方法】运用文献计量和内容分析方法,量化农业面源污染治理政策文本内容。【结果】在1992年之前中国农业面源污染治理政策实施数量明显偏少,1993-2010年是农业面源污染治理政策的初步形成阶段,2011-2018年是农业面源污染治理政策的深化发展阶段,政策实施数量快速增长,其中2017年实施的政策数量达到40项。农业面源污染治理政策的发布形式包含权威性较高的“法律”“规定”等类型的政策文件,也包含指导性较强的“细则”“解释”“目录”等。农业面源污染治理政策发布主体包含如“全国人民代表大会”“农业农村部”“生态环境部”等31个主体,农业面源污染治理政策发布主体独立颁布的政策为305项,各主体协同配合并联合发布的政策为60项。考虑政策措施的单独使用和配合使用情况:行政规制型措施的单独使用在365项政策中占比达23.56%,技术支持型措施和经济激励型措施的单独使用较少,在365项政策中分别占比8.22%和6.03%。在1978-2018年365项政策中,行政规制型与技术支持型措施配合使用的比例为13.70%,行政规制型与经济激励型措施配合使用的比例为6.85%,经济激励型与技术支持型措施配合使用的比例为3.56%,三类措施同时配合使用的政策数量占比最高,为38.08%。在2011年的政策文件中,三类措施配合使用的政策数量占比就达70.83%,而在1978年和2000年这一指标仅为0和33.33%。2000年后,行政规制型措施的平均效力在平稳波动中增长,效力值维持在2.5-3.5之间。经济激励型措施的平均效力值持续波动,上升趋势不明显,在近几年效力值有所下降,2011年的效力值为3.2,2018年的效力值为1.8。技术支持型措施的效力值在该阶段呈现出明显上升的趋势,2012年的效力值为3.2,2018年的效力值已上升到3.8。【结论】1978-2018年中国农业面源污染治理政策的数量呈现出阶段性波动上升的趋势;政策发布形式、发布主体呈现出多元化特征;农业面源污染治理政策中行政规制型措施使用较多,经济激励型措施使用较少,近年来多类型措施配合使用的政策数量逐渐增加;农业面源污染治理政策的整体效力值呈现出阶段性上升的趋势,政策平均效力值在现阶段平稳波动;政策文件中的行政规制型、经济激励型和技术支持型三类措施的平均效力值均在前期呈现出大幅度波动,现阶段除了经济激励型措施外,行政规制型和技术支持型措施的效力值都有明显上升趋势。

【Objective】Based on the 365 agricultural non-point source pollution control policies promulgated by national departments from 1978 to 2018, the evolution characteristics of the policies were analyzed, and the administrative regulation, economic incentives and technical support measures of the policies were highlight to investigate.【Method】 This paper used policy literature measurement and content analysis methods to quantify the text content of agricultural non-point source pollution control policy. 【Result】 The number of agricultural non-point source pollution policies was significantly less before 1992 in China. The period from 1993 to 2010 was the initial formation stage of agricultural non-point source pollution control policies, while the period from 2011 to 2018 was the deepening development stage of agricultural non-point source pollution control policies, the number of governance policies implemented has grown rapidly, and the number of policies implemented in 2017 reached 40. Agricultural non-point source pollution control policies were issued in the form of highly authoritative “laws” and “regulations” types of policy documents, as well as highly instructive “details” “interpretations” and “catalogs”. The issuers of agricultural non-point source pollution control policies included 31 entities, such as the “National People’s Congress” “Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs”, and “Ministry of Ecology and Environment”. There were 305 policies independently promulgated by policy issuers, and 60 policies jointly promulgated by various issuers. The individual citation of administrative regulatory measures accounted for 23.56% of the 365 policies, while the individual citations of technical support measures and economic incentive measures accounted for 8.22% and 6.03% of the 365 policies, respectively. Among the 365 policies from 1978 to 2018, the number of policies using three kinds of measures in coordination accounted for the highest proportion, which was 38.08%. The proportion of coordination between administrative regulation and technical support measures was 13.70%, while the proportion of coordination between administrative regulation and economic incentive measures was 6.85%. The proportion of economic incentive and technical support measures was 3.56%. In the 2011 policy document, 70.83% of the policies were combined with the three types of measures, compared with only 0 in 1978 and 33.33% in 2000. After 2000, the average value of administrative regulation measures effectiveness increased in a steady fluctuation, and the effectiveness value maintained between 2.5 and 3.5. The average effectiveness of economic incentive measures continued to fluctuate, and the upward trend was not obvious. In recent years, the effectiveness has declined, with the value of 3.2 in 2011 and 1.8 in 2018. The effectiveness of technical support measures has shown a significant upward trend at this stage, with the value of 3.2 in 2012 and 3.8 in 2018. 【Conclusion】 From 1978 to 2018, the number of agricultural non-point source pollution control policies in China has shown a trend of phased fluctuations;the form and issuers of policy were diversified. Among three measures in the policies, the administrative regulations were the most frequently used, while the economic incentives measures were the least. The overall effectiveness of policies showed a trend of rise while the average effectiveness was a smooth phase fluctuation. The average effectiveness of the three types measures in the policies all showed large fluctuations in the early stage. At this stage, in addition to economic incentive measures, both the effectiveness of administrative regulations and technical support measures are significant upward trend.