空管概率风险评估模型研究

Research on probabilistic risk assessment model for ATC

为了解决空管风险评估的不确定性引入概率论将风险评估结果进行概率化表示。然后综合利用群决策理论、信息熵理论、灰色关联理论、统计学理论和最优化理论,建立和求解相应的最优化模型得到危险源发生的概率。以西部某中小运输机场为例,使用该模型对其空管运行进行风险评估。结果表明该模型的评估结果不但和专家组的共识一致,还能定量获得危险源处于不同风险等级概率。

To solve the problem of uncertainty in ATC risk assessment,probability theory was introduced to represent the risk assessment results probabilistically.Then,the probability of hazard was obtained by establishing and solving the corresponding optimization model based on group decision theory,information entropy theory,Grey relational theory,statistics theory,and optimization theory.Taking a medium-sized transport airport in west China as an example,the model was used to assess the risk of its air traffic control operation.The results show that the model’s evaluation results are consistent with the consensus formed by the expert group and quantitatively obtain the possibility of hazards at different risk levels.The established model can effectively resolve the uncertainty in risk assessment.