中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易关系研究

Research on trade relations between China and countries along the Belt and Road

2013~2020年,中国同“一带一路”沿线国家创造了举世瞩目的贸易成果,虽有所波动但整体上保持稳定增长态势。基于贸易现状,文章测算了2013~2020年中国同53个“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易密集度TI指数以及贸易依赖度HM指数,发现中国与“一带一路”沿线亚非国家贸易往来更加密集,对越南、新加坡、马来西亚等国贸易依赖度较高。通过构建随机前沿引力模型,实证发现贸易国家经济发展水平提高、我国对外直接投资增加、签署人民币互换协议等因素有利于提高中国同“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易水平。

From 2013 to 2020,China's trade with countries along the Belt and Road has achieved remarkable results,with steady growth despite fluctuations.Based on the current trade situation,this paper calculates the TI index of trade intensity and HM index of trade dependence between China and 53 countries along the Belt and Road from 2013 to 2020,and finds that China has more intensive trade with Asian and African countries along the Belt and Road,and has higher trade dependence on Vietnam,Singapore,Malaysia and other coun tries.Based on the stochastic frontier gravity model,the empirical results show that the improvement of economic development level of trading countries,the increase of China's foreign direct investment,and the signing of RMB swap agreement are conducive to the improve ment of China's trade level with countries along the Belt and Road.