论中美大国战略竞争关系何以生成与应对——基于大国关系中经济—安全联动错位机制的解释

On the Formation and Response of the Great Power Competition between China and the United States:Based on the Explanation of the Dislocated Spiral Mechanism of Economy-Security Nexus among Great Powers

如何解释中美大国战略竞争关系的生成是当前世界政治最重要的议题之一,对此,文章搭建一个大国关系中“经济—安全联动错位机制”生成的宏观框架,建立对应的类型学,通过负面、半负面与正面案例比较以提供一个机制加因素的演化性解释,该框架认为,促成两国战略竞争关系的核心动力是经济—安全联动错位机制。错位机制的驱动在于两国以全球化高度复合依赖为背景变量、国内政治经济利益格局为前置变量,随着时间的演进,两国关系中经济与安全作为两大核心变量持续联动并结合多个因素作为干预变量;引发美国通过社会动员与国内政治机构的中介变量对华进行经济与安全的复合竞争,最终导致出现两国经济—安全联动螺旋失衡的因变量;即经济竞争加剧安全冲突,削弱政治互信,政治与安全逻辑试图压倒经济逻辑,两国战略竞争关系正式生成。对此,中国需要充分吸取历史启示并加以应对,着力实现两国产业结构深化互补、第三方市场与安全合作、完善全球经济治理与双边安全深度合作,同时辅之以社会文化交流与全球治理合作,进而推动中美关系迈向多维共同演化,由此产生大国关系互动的革新意义。

One of the most important questions in contemporary world politics is how great power strategic competition generated between China and the United States.In response to this question,this article constructs a general framework to explain it and builds a typology to compare negative,semi-negative and positive cases,providing an evolutionary explanation based on mechanism plus factors.The framework illustrates how the primary factor driving strategic competition between the two countries is the dislocation mechanism of economic and security nexus.This dislocation is driven by an underlying background assumption of complex mutual dependence between the two countries resulting from globalization and their domestic economic and political interests.Over time,continuous interaction and integration occurs between core elements of economic and security relations between the two states,resulting in social mobilization and institutional factors in the United States driving it to engage China in economic and security competition.These are the dependent variables that ultimately result in a spiral towards an imbalance between economic and security.That is,economic competition intensifies security tensions and weakens political mutual trust,as the political and security calculus ultimately overwhelms the logic of economics.In the end,strategic competition emerges between the two states as a result.Thus,China needs to learn carefully from historical lessons in crafting its response to these trends.It should endeavor to deepen complementarity between the industrial structures of the two countries,enhance security cooperation with third country markets,and enhance and deepen cooperation between global economic governance and bilateral security.At the same time,this needs to be supplemented by social and cultural exchanges and cooperation in global governance.This will enable Sino-U.S.relations to move in the direction of multi-dimensional coexistence,which can have revolutionary implications for the great power relations in the human history.