黄梅禅茶生长期气候条件及春季开采期预测分析

Climatic Conditions during the Growth Period of Huangmei Zen Tea and Prediction Analysis of Mining Period in Spring

选用黄梅县国家气象站近30年(1991—2020年)和北部山区10个区域自动气象站近5年(2016—2020年)气象资料,分析黄梅县禅茶生长期间的气候资源;同时利用2011—2020年禅茶开采期资料和同期气温、降水量、日照时数和相对湿度等气象资料,运用数理统计分析方法对黄梅禅茶开采期与各气象要素的关系进行分析,采用逐步回归的方法建立禅茶开采期预报模型。结果表明,黄梅县热量资源和水资源丰富,适合禅茶生长,北部山区比北部地区年平均气温偏低0.9~2.0℃,禅茶春季开采偏迟7~10 d;禅茶春季开采期与2、3月平均气温和1月降水量呈负相关,其中与3月平均气温呈极显著负相关,说明气温升高,开采期提前,反之,开采期推迟,同时前期降水量、后期气温对开采期影响较大;建立的开采期预报模型经2021年验证,效果较好,预报误差1.5 d左右,可应用于实际生产中,为茶农适时组织劳力、合理安排禅茶采摘提供理论依据。

Based on the meteorological data of Huangmei National Meteorological Station in recent 30 years(1991-2020)and 10 regional automatic meteorological stations in northern mountainous areas in recent 5 years(2016-2020),the climate resources during the growth of Zen tea in Huangmei County were analyzed;at the same time,using the data of Zen tea mining period from 2011 to 2020 and the meteorological data of temperature,precipitation,sunshine and relative humidity in the same period,the relationship between Huangmei Zen tea mining period and various meteorological elements was analyzed by using the method of mathematical statistical analysis,and the prediction model of Zen tea mining period was established by using the method of stepwise regression.The results show that Huangmei County was rich in heat and water resources,which was suitable for the growth of Zen tea.The annual average temperature in the northern mountainous area was 0.9-2.0℃lower than that in the northern area,and the exploitation of Zen tea in spring was 7-10 days later.The spring mining period of Zen tea had a negative correlation with the average temperature in February and March and the precipitation in January,among which there was extremely significant negative correlation with the average temperature in March,indicating that the temperature increased,the mining period was advanced,on the contrary,the mining period was delayed,and the precipitation in the early stage and the temperature in the later stage had a great impact on the mining period.The established prediction model of mining period had been verified in 2021,and the effect was good,with a prediction error of about 1.5 days.It can be applied to actual production,and provide a theoretical basis for tea farmers to organize labor in time and reasonably arrange Zen tea picking.