基于偏最小二乘路径模型的粮食产量影响因素分析

Study on Factors Influencing Grain Yield Based on Partial Least Squares Path Modeling

根据1990—2018年粮食产量相关统计数据,选取有效灌溉面积、农用化肥施用折纯量、农业机械总动力、农用塑料薄膜使用量、农药使用量、支持农业生产支出、农村居民人均可支配收入、成灾面积、农村用电量、播种面积这10项指标,采用简单相关分析、典型相关分析、偏最小二乘路径模型分析了影响粮食产量的主演因素。结果表明:通过简单相关分析法,对单位面积粮食产量影响最大的因素是农村用电量,对粮食总产量影响最大的因素是支持农业生产支出;通过典型相关分析法,对产量影响较大的因素是有效灌溉面积、播种面积;通过偏最小二乘路径模型法,对粮食产量影响较大的潜变量是科技因素,其中以塑料薄膜使用量所占载荷最大。

Based on the statistical data of grain output in China from 1990 to 2018,10 indicators were selected,including effective irrigation area,pure amount of agricultural chemical fertilizer application,total power of agricultural machinery,consumption of agricultural plastic film,consumption of pesticides,expenditure for supporting agricultural production,per capita disposable income of rural residents,disaster area,rural electricity consumption and sown area.Simple correlation analysis,canonical correlation analysis and partial least square path model are used to analyze the main factors affecting grain yield.The results show that the most important factor affecting grain yield per unit area is rural electricity consumption,and the most important factor affecting total grain output is supporting agricultural production expenditure.Through canonical correlation analysis,the factors that have great influence on yield are effective irrigation area and sowing area;according to the partial least squares path model method,the potential variable that has a great influence on grain yield is scientific and technological factors,among which the load of plastic film is the largest.