基于概率物理模型的贮存可靠性评估方法

Storage Reliability Assessment Method Based on Probabilistic Physical Model

针对小样本高截尾试验信息贮存可靠性评估问题,提出了基于概率物理模型的贮存可靠性评估方法。通过对概率物理模型与传统指数模型的贮存可靠性评估方法进行对比分析,分别利用2种评估方法进行模型参数拟合、无失效数据可靠性评估和系统可靠性评估,发现无论是从拟合精度,还是小样本数据评估方面,概率物理模型评估方法都更符合工程实际。该模型对导弹或其他类型装备的贮存可靠度评定具有较好的应用和理论价值。

In order to evaluate the storage reliability of small sample high truncated test information,this paper proposes a storage reliability evaluation method based on probabilistic physics.Storage reliability evaluation methods based on the probabilistic physical model and the traditional exponential model are compared and analyzed.The evaluation methods are respectively used to perform model parameter fitting,no-failure data reliability evaluation and system reliability evaluation.It is found that the probabilistic physical model evaluation method is more in line with engineering reality in terms of fitting accuracy and small sample data evaluation.This probabilistic physical model has good application and theoretical value for the storage reliability assessment of missiles or other types of equipment.