RCEP框架下中国与东南亚地区的价值链关联及变动趋势

The Value Chain Linkages and Trends of China and Southeast Asia within the RCEP Framework

在以“雁阵模式”迅速发展起来的亚太生产网络中,中国与东南亚地区的价值链联系日益紧密。基于亚洲开发银行多区域投入产出表,利用增加值核算方法,对中国和东南亚地区的价值链关联和变动趋势进行了研究。研究结果表明,随着中国价值链位置的上移,东南亚地区开始承担中国“世界工厂”的部分功能,从事全球价值链的加工组装环节;东南亚地区在产业分工和出口产品的价值增值过程中总体上对中国的依赖度呈显著上升的态势;中国对东南亚出口中的国内增加值更倾向于通过中间品出口;中国低技术制造业和中高技术制造业都存在低端环节向东南亚地区的产业转移的现象,但低技术制造业的转移相对更多更明显。RCEP的生效,将助力中国向亚太区域价值链的“领头雁”角色转变,放大区域内产业链、供应链和价值链的集聚效应,为形成以中国为中心的扩大版的“世界工厂”创造更有利的条件,从而起到增强区域内部市场的韧性和安全性的重要作用。

In the rapid development of Asia-Pacific production networks in the Flying Geese Model,the value chains between China and Southeast Asia are increasingly connected.Based on the Asian Development Bank’s multi-regional input-output tables,this paper uses the value-added accounting framework to study the value chain linkages and trends between China and Southeast Asia.It shows that,with China’s value chain upgrading,Southeast Asia has begun to assume part of the functions of China as the “world factory” and is engaged in processing and assembly activities of global value chains and its dependence on China is rising.With the RCEP coming into force,China will gradually transform into the role of the “leading goose” in the value chains of Asia-Pacific region,and the agglomeration effect of the industrial chains in this region will be further enhanced,creating more favorable conditions for the formation of an enlarged regional version of the “world factory” centered around China and enhancing the resilience and security of the regional internal markets.