产业转移、融入国际与脆弱性隐忧--越南制造业发展的国际政治经济学研究

Industrial Transfer,International Integration and Vulnerable Development:An International Political Economy Study on the Manufacturing of Vietnam

得益于廉价劳动力资源、优惠外资政策、中美战略博弈升级、中国国内经济转型等一系列国内外因素,越南吸引了大量产业转移,拉动了制造业的发展。从全球价值链分工体系的角度来看,越南制造业的参与方式具有“一高三低”的特点:“高度”参与全球价值链下游的“低增加值”生产环节,“低端技术”部门比较优势突出,在高端技术部门的生产分工中被锁定在低端,产业向越南加速转移固化了其“低端锁定”困境。越南制造业当前高度依赖产业转移并深嵌于全球价值链下游的发展模式具有较强的脆弱性,包括国内市场规模有限、重工业基础薄弱、严重依赖外资、自主研发能力低和政府国家治理能力弱等多个方面。RCEP为越南制造业的发展提供了可观的机遇,有增大越南出口并倒逼国内改革的潜力。

With a series of domestic and foreign factors such as cheap labor resources,preferential foreign investment policies,Sino-US strategic competition,and China s economic transformation,Vietnam has been highly attractive to industrial transfer,which stimulated the development of Vietnam s manufacturing.In terms of the global value chain,the participation of the Vietnamese manufacturing industry has the characteristics of“one high and three lows”.Specifically,the manufacturing industry of Vietnam“highly”participates in the“low value-added”production downstream of the global value chain.Secondly,Vietnam has an outstanding advantage in“low-end technology”manufacturing sectors.Thirdly,the high-tech manufacturing of Vietnam is locked at the“low end”of the global value chain.The increasing industry transfer has solidified Vietnam s dilemma of“low-end lock-in”.In sum,Vietnam s manufacturing is highly dependent on industrial transfer and deeply embedded downstream of the global value chain.This development model has nonegligible vulnerabilities,including limited domestic market scale,infirm heavy industry foundation,high dependence on foreign investment,low independent research and development capabilities,and weak domestic governance capabilities.RCEP could provide considerable opportunities for the development of Vietnam s manufacturing.It has the potential to increase the exports of Vietnam and to force domestic reforms.