从LCOE与电价关系角度实证研究光伏发电项目的平价上网路径

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON GRID PARITY PATH OF PV POWER GENERATION PROJECTS FROM PERSPECTIVE OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LCOE AND ELECTRICITY PRICE

以中国不同地区的20个光伏发电项目为样本,计算项目的平准化度电成本(LCOE),将计算得到的不含税LCOE修正为含税LCOE,并与项目的核准电价、当地的脱硫煤标杆电价对标,分析含税LCOE与核准电价之间的变化趋势;对LCOE进行敏感性分析,将平价上网时代含税LCOE降幅与核准电价降幅趋势进行对比分析,并针对平价上网时代光伏发电项目如何保持经济性提出了对策与建议。分析结果显示:1)项目的含税LCOE与核准电价之间呈显著的线性关系;2) LCOE对年利用小时数及光伏组件总成本的敏感性较高,其中,年利用小时数是LCOE的最大影响因素;3)含税LCOE需与核准电价同比例或比核准电价更大幅度的下降才能保证平价上网光伏发电项目的经济性。

In this paper,take twenty PV power generation projects in different regions of China as samples,calculate the levelized cost of electricity(LCOE) of the project,and correct the calculated LCOE excluding tax to the tax-included LCOE.Compare with the approved electricity price of the project and the local desulfurization coal benchmark electricity price,and the change trend between the tax-included LCOE and the approved electricity price is analyzed.The sensitivity analysis of LCOE is carried out,and the decline trend of tax-included LCOE and approved electricity price in the era of grid parity is compared and analyzed,and countermeasures and suggestions on how to maintain the economics of PV power generation projects in the era of grid parity are put forward.The results show that:1) There is a significant linear relationship between the tax-included LCOE of the project and the approved electricity price;2) The LCOE has highly sensitive to the annual utilization hours and the total cost of PV modules;Among them,the annual utilization hours is the biggest influence factor on LCOE;3) Tax-included LCOE needs to be reduced in the same proportion as the approved electricity price or a larger drop than the approved electricity price to ensure the economics of grid parity PV power generation projects.