基于LMDI模型的江苏省碳排放强度影响因素分解研究

Decomposition of Factors Affecting Carbon Emission Intensity in Jiangsu Province Based on LMDI Model

碳排放强度严重约束了各地区经济的可持续发展.采用LMDI模型,将江苏省碳排放强度影响因素分解为产业结构、能源强度和能源结构,得出各影响因素对碳排放强度降低的贡献率.结果表明,江苏省的碳排放量逐年上升,但是碳排放强度呈现逐年递减的趋势,能源结构对江苏省碳排放强度的驱动效应最大,贡献率达61.48%,能源强度的贡献率为38.47%,产业结构的影响潜力尚未完全发挥.江苏省应进一步优化能源结构,提高能源利用效率并加快产业结构调整步伐.

Severely constrains the sustainable development of economies in varioks regins.By using the LMDI model,this paper decomposes the factors affecting the carbon emission intensity of Jiangsu Province into industrial structure,energy intensity and energy structure,and obtains the contribution rate of each influencing factor to the reduction of carbon emission intensity.The research shows that the carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province are increasing year by year,but the carbon emission intensity is decreasing year by year.The energy structure has the biggest driving effect on the carbon intensity of Jiangsu Province,with a contribution rate of 61.48%;the contribution rate of energy intensity is 38.47%;the potential impact of the industrial structure has not yet been fully realized.Jiangsu Province should further optimize the energy structure,improve energy efficiency,and accelerate the pace of industrial restructuring.