房价波动对技术创新影响的空间效应分析——基于省级面板空间滞后模型

Spatial effect analysis of the impact of house price fluctuation on technological innovation——Spatial lagged model based on provincial panel

基于空间相关性构建了空间滞后模型,以2007—2020年中国31个省份省级面板数据为样本,研究了房价波动对技术创新影响的空间效应。结果表明:相邻区域技术创新每提高1%,该区域技术创新将提高0.38%;在空间上,房价每提高1%,该区域技术创新将下降0.67%,而相邻区域房价每提高1%,该区域技术创新将下降0.25%,表明房价上涨不仅对本区域技术创新会产生抑制作用,还会对相邻区域技术创新产生抑制作用。根据研究结论,提出了建立长效机制,稳定房价预期;建立区域协调机制,平衡房价间接效应;加大财政投入、支持技术创新发展等对策建议。

Based on the spatial correlation,a spatial lagged model is constructed.This paper uses the provincial panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2007 to 2020 as a sample to study the spatial effect of house price fluctuation on technological innovation.The results show that for every 1%increase in technological innovation in adjacent regions,technological innovation in this region increased by 0.38%and that in terms of space,for every 1%increase in house prices,technological innovation in this region decreased by 0.67%,while for every 1%increase in house prices in adjacent regions,technological innovation in this region decreased by 0.25%,indicating that the rise in house prices not only inhibited the technological innovation in this region,but also inhibited the technological innovation in adjacent regions.According to the research conclusion,this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions,such as establishing a long-term mechanism,stabilizing house price expectation,establishing a regional coordination mechanism,balancing the indirect effect of house price,increasing financial investment and supporting technological innovation and development.