可再生能源技术创新与碳减排——基于地区经济发展不平衡视角

Renewable Energy Technology Innovation and Carbon Reduction:A Study from the Perspective of Regional Unbalanced Development

可再生能源技术创新是中国实现气候和环境目标的关键动力,但不同地区发展和利用可再生能源技术的能力和方式可能依赖于其经济发展水平。本文基于部分线性函数型系数面板数据模型,利用中国30个省市1997—2015年的数据,实证分析了地区可再生能源技术创新对碳排放的异质性影响。结果显示:只有当收入达到既定水平后,可再生能源技术创新才能实现碳减排效应;在此之后,其边际减排效应随着收入增长而提升。进一步,由于碳减排具体机制的收入临界值条件有别,不同省份在不同年份的碳减排机制存在差异:在样本末期,所有省份都能利用可再生能源比重提升渠道机制,但仅有不到一半的样本省份能够利用碳生产率提升渠道机制。基于部分线性函数型系数模型的新实证框架,本文发现经济发展差异下不同省份之间可再生能源技术创新的异质性碳减排机制,有助于充分评估不同省份的碳减排能力和潜力,促进区域间合理分解和制定气候政策目标。

Renewable energy technological innovation is an important driving force in China’s path to achieve climate and environmental targets.For regions with various levels of economic development,their capacities and ways of developing and utilizing renewable energy technologies could be quite different.Based on the partial linear functional-coefficient panel data models,this paper uses a panel dataset from 30 provinces in China’s mainland from 1997 to2015 to explore the heterogeneous impact of renewable energy technology innovation in various regions.The results show that only when income reaches a certain level can renewable energy technology innovation achieve CO2reduction.After that,the marginal emission reduction effect of renewable energy technology innovation increases with income growth.More importantly,income level thresholds of the two mechanisms are different,implying that provinces in different years use renewable energy innovation to achieve CO2reduction through different mechanisms.The difference in income level threshold between the two mechanisms that significantly reduce carbon emissions is noticeable.In 2015,all provinces can achieve substantial carbon emission reduction effects by increasing the proportion of renewable energy,but less than half of the regions can use carbon productivity as improving channel mechanism.Based on the empirical findings,this paper proposes policy recommendations for renewable energy development with regional differences.