检疫害虫番茄潜叶蛾在中国的适生性分析

Analysis of Suitability of Quarantine Pest Tuta absoluta in China

番茄潜叶蛾是危害茄科植物的重要检疫害虫,近年来在全球有扩大蔓延趋势。为明确番茄潜叶蛾在中国的潜在适生区及入侵扩散趋势,对我国番茄潜叶蛾的监测、预警及防控措施的制定提供重要理论参考,研究基于番茄潜叶蛾在全球的分布数据和环境变量,采用MaxEnt生态位模型和SDMtoolbox工具对其在我国的潜在分布及质心变化趋势进行预测,并采用ROC曲线评估模型精度、采用刀切法筛选主导环境变量及其最适值。结果表明,当前及未来MaxEnt建模AUC值均大于0.9,说明预测结果与实际分布拟合度很高,最冷月份最低温、昼夜温差月均值、降雨量变异系数和年降水量是影响番茄潜叶蛾潜在分布的主要限制环境变量。当前气候条件下番茄潜叶蛾在中国的高适生区(P≥0.66)主要分布于四川东部与重庆、甘肃、陕西、云南及贵州接壤地区,未来不同气候模式下番茄潜叶蛾转移趋势不同,SSP5-85气候情景下,番茄潜叶蛾在中国的总适生区面积增加并逐渐向东迁移的趋势,表明在该气候模式下番茄潜叶蛾在我国持续扩散和危害的风险大,而在SSP1-26及SSP2-45气候模式下转移趋势出现差异,表明未来不同气候模式对该虫的分布有不同的影响。

The tomato leaf miner Tuta absoluta is an important quarantine pest to Solanaceae plants,which has an expanding spread in recent years.In order to clarify the potential geographical distribution and spread trend of Tuta absoluta in China,provide a theoretical reference for the monitoring,early warning and making control measures of Tuta absoluta in China,in this study,a species distribution model MaxEnt and SDMtoolbox was used to predict the potential distribution and centroid change trend in China based on the available worldwide distribution data and environmental variables of Tuta absoluta.ROC curve was used to evaluate the model accuracy.The dominant environmental variables and their optimum values were screened by the jackknife method.The results showed that the AUC values of MaxEnt modeling at present and in future were all above0.9,and the predicted results had a high fitting degree with the actual distribution.The minimum temperature in the coldest month,the monthly mean of diurnal temperature difference,the coefficient of variance of rainfall,and the annual precipitation were the main limiting environmental variables affecting the potential distribution of Tuta absoluta in China.Under the current climate conditions,the high suitable areas(P≥0.66)of Tuta absoluta in China were mainly located in the contiguous areas among eastern part of Sichuan,Chongqing,Gansu,Shaanxi,Yunnan,and Guizhou.The transfer trend of Tuta absoluta will be different under different climate patterns in the future.Under the future SSP5-85 climate scenario,the total suitable areas of Tuta absoluta in China increased and tended to move eastward,with a high risk of continuing spreading and harming under the climate pattern.Under the future SSP1-26 and SSP2-45 climate scenario,the transfer trend was different,revealing that different climate patterns in the future will have different effects on the distribution of the pest.