金融加速器、预期消息冲击和货币政策规则选择

Financial Accelerator,Expected News Shocks and Choice of Monetary Policy Rules

通过构建包含金融加速器机制和预期消息冲击的DSGE模型,推导出数量型、价格型和混合型货币政策规则对宏观经济的调控作用,以探究现行经济环境下最优的货币政策规则。研究表明,包含预期消息冲击的模型对我国宏观经济走势的拟合性更强,更能反映金融加速器机制下宏观经济的波动情况;相比于未预期的货币政策冲击,已预期的货币政策冲击在不同货币政策规则下均具有更强的宏观调控效应。此外,福利损失分析表明,混合型货币政策规则能够最大程度降低货币政策实施产生的福利损失,这意味着混合型货币政策规则符合经济发展规律,亦是我国未来货币政策发展转型的方向所在。

By constructing a DSGE model that includes financial accelerator mechanism and ex-pected news shocks,this paper deduces the regulatory effect of the monetary policy rules of the scalar type,the price type and the mixed type on the macro economy,so as to explore the optimal monetary policy rules in the current economic environment.The results show that the model contain-ing expected news shocks has a better fit to China's macroeconomic trends,which can better reflect the macroeconomic fluctuations under the financial accelerator mechanism.Compared with unexpected monetary policy shocks,the expected monetary policy shocks have stronger macro-control effects un-der different monetary policy rules.In addition,the welfare loss analysis shows that the mixed mone-tary policy rules can minimize the welfare loss caused by the implementation of the monetary policy,which means that the mixed monetary policy rules conform to the law of economic development,and that it is also the direction of China’s future monetary policy development and transition.