西南山区水资源与社会经济协调发展及其影响因素——以遵义市为例

Study on coordinated development and influencing factors of water resources and social economy in mountainous areas of Southwest China:case of Zunyi City

水资源与社会经济的协调发展对促进生态环境保护和地区综合高质量发展具有重要意义。以典型西南山区城市——遵义市为研究对象,构建2个系统协调发展的综合指标体系;采用熵权法、耦合协调模型,对2009~2019年遵义市“水资源-社会经济”协调发展状态及其交互作用机理进行分析,并结合灰色关联系数探究2个系统协调发展的影响机制。研究结果表明:(1)研究期内,水资源综合水平呈先下降后趋于平稳的态势,说明水资源承载力和利用效率呈先降低后稳定的状态,社会经济发展水平呈上升的趋势;(2) 2个系统间的耦合协调状态由2009年的勉强协调(0.596)向2019年的中级协调(0.719)转变;(3)水资源与社会经济的耦合协调度差异受到经济技术发展、产业用水结构、城镇化建设、水资源禀赋以及水环境治理水平等要素的共同影响,使得2个系统在发展过程中互为影响,协同演进。研究结果可为西南山区水资源优化及其可持续发展规划的研制提供科学参考依据。

The coordinated development of water resources and social economy is of great significance to promoting ecological environment protection and regional comprehensive high-quality development.Taking Zunyi City, a typical mountainous city in Southwest China as the research object, we constructed a comprehensive index system for the coordinated development of the two systems, analyzed the coordinated development status and interaction mechanism of ‘water resources-social economy’ in Zunyi City from 2009 to 2019 by using entropy weight method and coupling coordination model, and explored the influence mechanism of the coordinated development of the two systems combing with grey correlation coefficient.The results showed that:(1) During the study period, the comprehensive level of water resources first decreased and then stabilized, indicating that the water resources carrying capacity and efficiency first decreased and then stabilized, while the overall level of socio-economic development showed an upward trend.(2) The coupling coordination state between the two systems had changed from barely coordinated(0.596) in 2009 to moderately coordinated(0.719) in 2019.(3) The difference of coupling coordination degree between water resources and social economy development was affected by economic and technological development, industrial water utilization structure, urbanization construction, water resources endowment, water environment governance level and other factors, which made the two systems influence each other in the development process and evolve in coordination.The study can provide a scientific reference for the optimization and sustainable development of water resources in mountainous areas of Southwest China.