济南市新型城镇化发展水平测度分析——基于灰色GM(1,1)模型

Measurement and Analysis of the Level of Development of New Urbanization in Jinan City:Based on GM(1,1)Model

目前新型城镇化发展的理论研究重点之一依然包括人口城镇化率。基于对济南市2005—2020年城镇化水平的查阅整理,通过建立GM(1,1)预测模型来研究济南市过去15 a的城镇化过程并测算其未来的发展状况,同时与日趋完善的城镇化政策相结合,对济南市新型城镇化水平进行量化分析。结果表明:模型拟合效果良好,可用于对济南市未来5 a城镇化率的预测,并根据预测数据提出相关建议。

At present,one of the theoretical research focuses of the development of new urbanization still includes the population urbanization rate.Based on the review and sorting of the urbanization level of Jinan from 2005 to 2020,GM(1,1)prediction model is established to study the urbanization process of Jinan in the past fifteen years and to calculate its future development.Meanwhile,considering the increasingly perfect urbanization policy,this paper makes a quantitative analysis on the level of new urbanization in Jinan,the results show that the fitting effect of the model is satisfactory.Therefore,the model can be used to predict the urbanization rate of Jinan in the next five years and to put forward relevant suggestions according to the predicted data.