传统贸易、增加值贸易与国际经济周期联动

Traditional Trade,Value-added Trade and International Economic Cycle Linkage

随着国际分工格局发生了从产业间分工到产业内分工再到全球价值链分工的重大转型,增加值贸易相较于传统贸易在经济周期传导中的作用得到显著提升。本文首先基于国际经济周期理论,在两国和三国框架下从理论上分析增加值贸易和传统贸易在传导经济周期中的异质性作用,然后基于国家层面采用2000—2014年的世界投入产出数据进行实证检验。研究结果表明,增加值贸易对经济周期联动性具有显著且稳健的正向影响,而传统贸易的作用并不显著。这一结论印证了理论分析结果,即随着全球价值链分工模式的不断深入,增加值贸易逐渐替代传统贸易成为国际经济周期传导的核心贸易渠道。这为中国应对贸易保护和规避国际经济周期波动的传导风险,构建新发展格局,实现中国经济稳态发展提供了重要的政策参考。

As the international division of labor underwent a major transformation from inter-industry division of labor to intra-industry division of labor and then to global value chain division of labor,the role of value-added trade in transmitting economic cycles is significantly improved compared with traditional trade.This paper first analyzes the heterogeneous role of value-added trade and traditional trade in the transmission of economic cycles based on the international business cycle theory under the framework of two and three countries respectively,and then conducts empirically tests by using the world input-output data from 2000 to 2014 at the national level.The results indicate that value-added trade has a significant and stable positive impact on the economic cycle linkage,while the role of traditional trade is not significant,which confirms the theoretical analysis results,that is,with the deepening of the global value chain division mode,value-added trade gradually replaces traditional trade as the core trade channel of international economic cycle transmission.The findings may provide an important policy reference for China to deal with trade protection and avoid transmission risks of international economic cycle fluctuations,build a new development pattern and realize the steady development of China’s economy.