页岩气井经济效益评价图版建立及运用——以川南页岩气开发为例

Establishment and application of economic benefit evaluation charts of shale gas well:A case study on shale gas development in southern Sichuan Basin

中国页岩气资源丰富,目前已步入工业化开发阶段,但由于地质和工程条件与北美对比存在明显差距,其大规模开发面临经济效益带来的瓶颈制约,经济评价工作需发挥重要作用。针对页岩气开发以平台为单元的特性,将页岩气单井作为经济效益评价的研究对象,从技术与经济相结合的视角,建立页岩气井经济效益评价图版并运用于四川盆地川南页岩气开发实际。首先,依据测试产量,利用概率统计分析法对气井进行分类,并建立测试产量与单井最终可采储量(EUR)的关系;其次,基于现金流量法,选取财务内部收益率(IRR)为主要评价指标,建立页岩气井的经济评价体系;再者,依据现行的技术经济政策确定经济评价参数,通过敏感性分析找出影响经济效益的主控因素;最后建立主控因素影响的页岩气井经济效益评价图版。通过敏感性分析发现影响川南页岩气井经济效益由强至弱的因素依次为:页岩气价格、单井产量、单井投资和经营成本。在敏感性分析的基础之上,建立了川南页岩气井页岩气价格—IRR、测试产量—IRR、单井投资—IRR的经济效益评价图版。结论认为,页岩气井经济效益评价图版的建立,丰富了页岩气开发经济评价的方法与内容,使得单井财务可行性和经济合理性的快速分析成为可能。

In China,there are abundant shale gas resources and now it has stepped into the stage of industrial development.However,the geological and engineering conditions of shale gas in China are obviously different from those in the North America,and the large-scale shale gas development in China faces the bottleneck restriction of economic benefit,so economic evaluation plays an important role.In view that shale gas development takes platform as the unit,this paper takes shale gas well as the research object of economic benefit evaluation to establish the economic benefit evaluation charts of shale gas well from the perspective of combined technology and economics and apply them to the actual shale gas development in the southern Sichuan Basin.Firstly,based on the tested production rate,gas wells are classified by means of the probability and statistics analysis method,and the relationship between tested production rate and single-well estimated ultimate reserve is built.Then,according to the cash flow method,the internal rate of return(IRR)is selected as the main evaluation indicator to establish the economic evaluation system of shale gas well.Afterwards,the economic evaluation parameters are determined according to current technological and economic policies,and the main control factors influencing economic benefit are figured out by means of sensitivity analysis.Finally,the economic benefit evaluation charts of shale gas well under the effect of main control factors are prepared.The sensitivity analysis shows that the factors influencing the economic benefits of shale gas wells in the southern Sichuan Basin are ranked as shale gas price,single-well production rate,single-well investment and operation cost from strong to weak.On the basis of sensitivity analysis,the economic benefit evaluation charts of shale gas price–IRR,tested production rate–IRR and single-well investment–IRR for shale gas wells in the southern Sichuan Basin are established.The establishment of the economic benefit evaluation charts of shale gas well enriches the method and content of economic evaluation of shale gas development and makes the rapid analysis of single-well financial feasibility and economic rationality possible.