目的国签证限制对中国出口贸易的影响--基于6位数HS编码产品的检验

The impact of Destination Countries’Visa Restriction on China’s Export:Evidence Based on 6-digit HS-code Products

文章检验了目的国签证限制对中国产品出口的阻碍效应。签证限制会增加贸易成本,从而阻碍国际贸易。参照Neumayer(2011)和Umana-Dajud(2019)的做法,文章以目的国是否要求中国公民获得签证许可才能入境作为签证限制的代理变量,基于1996—2013年CEPII-BACI产品贸易数据和DEMIG签证政策数据,实证检验发现目的国的签证限制显著阻碍了中国产品的出口贸易。通过对国家人均收入水平的检验发现,高收入国家的签证限制带来的出口阻碍作用明显超过低收入国家;分产品差异化程度的检验则发现,目的国签证限制对中国同质化产品出口的阻碍作用超过差异化产品;而分产品技术密集度的检验发现,中、高技术密集型产品受到出口阻碍效应大于低技术产品。文章还发现:提高签证便利化程度,有利于降低目的国签证限制对中国产品出口的负面影响。本文的研究结论为中国制定签证便利化政策,为助力对外贸易高质量发展提供了良好的政策参考。

This paper investigates the hinder effect of destination countries’visa restriction on China’s export.Visa restriction will increase trade cost and hinder international trade.Following Neumayer(2011),Umana-Dajud(2019),this paper measures visa restriction according to the fact whether Chinese citizens are required visa permit to enter a country,empirically finds that visa restriction significantly reduces export value of Chinese products.The paper also finds that visa restriction of rich countries has a larger effect in hindering China’s export,and the hinder-effect is larger for homogenous products,medium and high technology-intensive products.Further test finds that the hinder-effect could be reduced by improving visa facilitation.The conclusion of this paper has important policy implications for China in making visa facilitation policy and help high-quality development of China’s foreign trade.