安徽省经济高质量发展评价、影响因素及趋势预测研究

Evaluation,Influencing Factors and Trend Forecast of Anhui Province High-quality Economic Development

基于安徽省1999-2018年的经济数据,构建安徽省经济高质量发展指标体系,利用熵权法测算安徽省经济发展水平,深入解析安徽省经济高质量发展的具体变化,并在不同的情境假设下对其未来5年的发展趋势进行预测。结果显示:安徽经济高质量发展水平不断提升,各领域发展都取得了不错的成绩,其中经济活力、人民生活、创新驱动3个维度的提高是促进安徽省经济高质量发展的主要影响因素,安徽省社会稳定和生态文明建设的发展水平相对滞后。预测结果显示,未来5年安徽经济高质量发展依然有较大上升空间,但需做出更多努力,最后给出相应的政策建议。

An indicator system for high-quality economic development in Anhui Province was constructed basing on the economic data of Anhui Province from 1999 to 2018.Entropy method was used to measure the economic development level of Anhui Province and analyze the specific changes in Anhui Province’s high-quality economic development.And assumptions were made in different situations to forecast its development trend in the next 5 years.The results showed that the high-quality development level of Anhui’s economy had continued to improve,and good results had been achieved in various fields.Among them,the improvement of the three dimensions of economic vitality,people’s lives,and innovation-driven were the main factors that promoted the high-quality development of Anhui’s economy.The development level of social stability and ecological civilization construction in Anhui Province was relatively lagging behind.The forecast results showed that there was still a lot of room for high-quality economic development in Anhui in the next five years,but more efforts were needed to finally give corresponding policy recommendations.Some advice have been given at last.