基于二元边际法分析中美贸易摩擦对安徽进口贸易发展影响

Analysis of the Impact of Sino-US Trade Friction on the Development of Anhui Import Trade Based on Binary Marginal Method

现有中美贸易摩擦研究大多基于宏观层面进行量化分析,对省际层面和现实数据关注不够。基于中国海关2017年至2019年进口贸易数据,通过二元边际方法对中美贸易摩擦背景下安徽省进口贸易结构变化进行研究发现,中美贸易摩擦对安徽省进口贸易总体发展影响不大;来源于美国的进口规模下降和来自其他贸易伙伴的进口规模上升表明,进口贸易破坏和贸易转移同时存在,且贸易转移效果更显著;产品—市场组合和行业层面的产品种类结构有所优化,但仍有不小提升空间。未来,安徽应进一步优化进口贸易结构,以进口贸易高质量发展推动新一轮高水平开放。

Most of the existing studies on Sino-US trade frictions are based on quantitative analysis at the macro level, and pay insufficient attention to the inter provincial level and realistic data. Based on the import trade data of China Customs from January 2017 to December 2019, this paper studies the change of import trade structure in Anhui Province under the background of Sino-US trade friction by using the binary marginal method. The results show that Sino-US trade friction has little impact on the overall development of import trade in Anhui Province;The decline of import scale from the United States and the increase of import scale from other trading partners show that import trade destruction and trade transfer exist at the same time, and the effect of trade transfer is more significant;Product market combination and industry have been optimized, but there is still room for improvement.In the future, Anhui should further optimize the import trade structure and promote a new round of high-level opening up with the high-quality development of import trade.