中国与南亚八国园艺产品贸易的竞争性与互补性研究

Competitiveness and complementarity of horticultural product trade between China and eight South Asian countries

“一带一路”倡议为我国与南亚地区园艺产品贸易的发展提供了有利契机。为探究中国与南亚八国园艺产品贸易的结构与趋势,基于联合国商品贸易统计数据库,从总体、国家和产品的角度分析了中国与南亚八国园艺产品贸易的发展及特征,并利用显示性比较优势指数(RCA)、贸易互补性指数(TCI)、贸易结合度指数(TII)和产业内贸易(IIT)指数等指标,考察了中国与南亚八国园艺产品贸易的竞争性与互补性。结果显示:中国与南亚八国园艺产品贸易发展较快,且集中度较高;存在一定的竞争性,而贸易互补性更强,体现在中国与印度更具竞争性,与巴基斯坦互补性更明显,其他国家分别与中国具有一定的贸易互补性;双边贸易结合度具有显著差异,中巴贸易联系更为紧密。据此提出配套实施可行的园艺产品贸易政策,调整园艺产品、产业和贸易结构,增强防范贸易风险的能力和深化双边园艺产品贸易互通建设的政策建议。

The Belt and Road Initiative provides a favorable opportunity for the development of horticultural product trade between China and other countries of South Asia.In order to explore the structure and trend of horticultural products trade between China and eight countries in South Asia,based on the United Nations commodity trade statistics database,this paper analyzes the development trend and characteristics of horticultural products trade between China and eight South Asian countries from the perspective of overall,national and product,and uses RCA index,TCI index The TII index and IIT index empirically measure the competitiveness and complementarity of horticultural products trade between China and eight South Asian countries.The results show that the horticultural product trade between China and eight South Asian countries has developed rapidly and has a high degree of concentration;there is a certain degree of competitiveness,and the trade complementarity is stronger,which is reflected in the more competitive China and India,and the more obvious complementarity with Pakistan.Other countries have a certain degree of trade complementarity with China;there are significant differences in the degree of bilateral trade integration,and China-Pakistan trade ties are closer.From this,we can get the policy suggestions of implementing feasible horticultural products trade policies,adjusting horticultural products,industry and trade structure,enhancing the ability to prevent trade risks and deepening the construction of bilateral horticultural products trade exchange.