2015—2020年河南省秸秆焚烧火点时空分布及影响因子

Temporal and Spatial Distribution and Influencing Factors of Straw Burning Points in Henan Province from 2015 to 2020

利用GIS(geographic information system)技术对区域秸秆焚烧火点时空格局进行探究,能为政府监管部门提供较为全面的辅助决策依据。选用2015—2020年河南省SatseeFire火点数据集,利用重心转移模型和空间自相关模型分析2015—2020河南省县域内秸秆焚烧火点的时空分布格局及其变化趋势,并利用地理探测器结合高程、坡度、坡向、农作物播种面积、农作物产量、GDP以及人口密度7个因子,探究火点的空间分布特征。结果表明:①2015—2020年火点数量呈滑坡式减少态势,夏秋季秸秆焚烧火点数量持续减少,秸秆禁烧效果明显,春冬季火点数量相对较多;②火点整体由西向北转移,火点重心主要集中在许昌市,呈明显的回字形转移路径;2015年火点呈较低的空间正相关水平,空间集聚性较弱,2016—2020年火点在空间上的离散分布态势明显,火点集中分布的县域不断减少,零散分布的县域略有增加;③2015—2020年各因子对火点影响程度的大小排序为:农作物播种面积>农作物产量>GDP>人口密度>高程>坡度>坡向,6年间各因子对火点空间分布的影响程度不断减弱,各因子对秸秆焚烧火点具有相互增强或非线性增强效应。

Using(geographic information system)technology to explore the temporal and spatial pattern of regional straw burning points can provide a more comprehensive auxiliary decision-making basis for government regulators.The SatseeFire fire fire point data set in Henan Province from 2015 to 2020 was selected to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution pattern and change trend of straw burning fire points in Henan Province from 2015 to 2020 by using the center of gravity transfer model and spatial autocorrelation model,and the geographic detector was used to combine the seven factors of elevation,slope,slope direction,crop sowing area,crop yield,GDP and population density,exploring the spatial distribution characteristics of fire points,the results show these as follows.The number of fire points decrease in a landslide from 2015 to 2020,the number of straw burning fire points decrease continuously in summer and autumn,the effect of straw burning prohibition is obvious,and the number of fire points is relatively large in spring and winter.The fire point shifts from west to north as a whole,and the center of gravity of the fire point is mainly concentrated in Xuchang City,showing an obvious return shaped transfer path.In 2015,fire points show a low spatial positive correlation level and weak spatial agglomeration.From 2016 to 2020,the spatial discrete distribution trend of fire points is obvious,the counties with concentrated distribution of fire points continued to decrease,and the counties with scattered distribution increased slightly.From 2015 to 2020,the influence degree of each factor on the fire point is as follows.Crop sowing area>crop yield>GDP>population density>elevation>slope>slope direction.In the past six years,the influence degree of each factor on the spatial distribution of the fire point has been weakening,and each factor has a mutually reinforcing or non-linear reinforcing effect on the straw incineration fire point.