基于系统动力学的海上交通应急救援效能分析

Analysis of Sea Traffic Emergency Rescue Efficiency Based on System Dynamics

随着海上交通的日益频繁,海上交通突发事件的发生频率也在不断增加,应急救援工作越来越受到重视。为了提升应急救援效能,以海上交通突发事件的实际救援过程为切入点,从信息感知、协同研判、方案决策、救援行动4个维度构建海上交通应急救援效能影响因素指标体系,通过层次熵分法对指标权重进行赋值,建立海上交通应急救援效能的系统动力学(system dynamics,SD)模型。运用Vensim软件进行模拟仿真,分析了不同条件下不同指标对应急救援效能的影响规律,为提升海上交通应急救援效能提供了参考。结果表明:实时根据事故复杂程度调整应急救援策略、建立全面不间断的救援信息感知网络、缩短救援延误时间可有效提升海上交通应急救援效能。

With the increasing maritime traffic density,the frequency of maritime traffic emergencies is also rising,and the emergency rescue has been paid more and more attention.In order to improve the efficiency of emergency rescue,the actual rescue process of maritime traffic emergency was considered as the pointcut,the index system of maritime traffic emergency rescue efficiency was constructed from four aspects of information perception,collaborative judgment,scheme decision-making and rescue action.The index weights were assigned by hierarchical entropy approach,and the system dynamics(SD)model of maritime traffic emergency rescue efficiency was established.Vensim software was used to analyze the influence of different indexes on emergency rescue efficiency under different conditions,providing a reference for improving the efficiency of emergency rescue in maritime traffic.The results show that the efficiency of maritime traffic emergency rescue can be enhanced by adjusting the emergency rescue strategy according to the complexity of the accident,establishing a comprehensive and uninterrupted rescue information perception network,and shortening the rescue delay time.