双模型下的养老金缺口测算与我国养老金融体系建设研究

Study on the Calculation of Pension Gap and the Construction of China’s Pension Financial System under the Dual Model

我国自20世纪末初步入老龄化社会以来,老龄化进程不断加快,“未富先老”背景下,我国社会和家庭养老压力加重,养老金缺口持续扩大,亟须进行改革。本文从分析我国老龄化现状与趋势入手,采用模拟精算法和世代交叠模型,测算我国养老金缺口及未来三十年的变化趋势,探讨目前养老金体系的问题,并借鉴国际先进经验,提出我国养老金制度的改革建议。尝试设计适合我国市场的养老金融产品,从而提高我国养老金投资的回报率与持续性,增强我国养老金体系在老龄化加速之下的适应性。

Since China initially entered an aging society at the end of the 20th century,the aging process has been accelerating.Under the condition of“getting old before getting rich”,China’s society and family pension pressure is under stressful circumstances,and the pension gap continues to expand,which is in urgent need of reform.From analysis of present situation and trend of aging in our country,this paper adopts the simulation actuarial method and overlapping generations model to calculate the pension gap and forecast the change trend of the future 30 years in our country.Discuss the current problem of the pension system and put forward the suggestion of pension system reform in China on the basis of advanced experiences of three developed countries.For the purpose of improving the rate of return and sustainability of China’s pension investment,and enhancing the adaptability of China’s pension system under the accelerated aging society,this paper also attempts to design the endowment financial products which is suitable for our market.