制造业转移的现状、经验、趋势及对我国的启示

The Current Situation,Experience,Trend and Enlightenment of Manufacturing Transfer

在国内国际双循环新发展格局下,叠加经贸摩擦、新冠疫情等外部冲击,我国制造业转移、升级的动机有所增强,并对国际收支平衡造成一定影响。本文以制造业转移的微观调查为切入点,以世界银行制造业增加值数据库为研究对象,探讨制造业转移的国别经验和影响因素。研究发现:制造业转移是中长期过程且存在短期波动风险,大规模制造业转移需要转入转出国在整体体量、转移规模等方面相匹配;吸引制造业流入的因素包括市场、技术和基础设施,推动制造业流出的因素包括关税税率、产业结构和外部冲击;我国制造业在中长期内将整体呈转出趋势,但更多体现为产业转型升级驱动,同时在转移过程中的部分时段可能出现反复,体现为一定的跨境资金流动风险,并对国际收支平衡造成影响。

Under the new development pattern of domestic and international dual cycle,in the face of external shocks such as the China-US trade disputes and the COVID-19 pandemic,China's manufacturing industry has strengthened its motivation to transfer and upgrade,and have an impact on the balance of payments.This paper takes the micro-survey of manufacturing transfer as the starting point and takes the World Bank's manufacturing value-added database as the research object to discuss the country-specific experience and influencing factors of manufacturing transfer.The study found that manufacturing transfer is a medium and long-term process with short-term fluctuation risks.Large-scale manufacturing transfer needs to be basically matched in terms of overall volume and transfer scale.Factors that attract manufacturing inflows include market,technology and infrastructure.Factors that promote the outflow of manufacturing include tariff rates,industrial structure and external shocks.China’s manufacturing industry will generally show a trend of transferring out in the medium and long term,but it is more reflected in the drive of industrial transformation and upgrading.At the same time,there may be repetition in some periods of the transfer process,which is reflected in a certain cross-border capital flow risk and has an impact on the balance of payments.