基于改进SIR的突发事件网络情绪传播机制研究

Research on Emotion Communication Mechanism of Emergencies Network Based on Improved SIR

为更好地呈现突发事件网络情绪的传播状态和转移过程,揭示网络情绪传播的内在机理,首先在传染病SIR模型的基础上,考虑网络情绪的不稳定性和调节性特征,加入网络情绪暂时稳定阶段,接着基于改进SIR模型构建突发事件网络舆情中积极和消极情绪传播模型,然后通过对模型求解和数值仿真来探究网络情绪传播的内在规律,最后结合仿真结论和新冠疫情案例来验证模型有效性。研究结果表明,在突发事件网络情绪的感染期中,网络舆情信息是影响网民情绪传播的关键因素;在网络情绪的爆发期中,政府对网络情绪的积极引导可有效缓解网民消极情绪,减少网络情绪对现实生活中的负面影响;在网络情绪的消亡期中,舆情反弹程度是引起网络情绪二次爆发的重要因素。模型能有效预测突发事件网络舆情中消极和积极情绪的传播演化过程,揭示网络情绪的传播规律,为网络情绪引导提供可靠建议。

In order to better present the transmission state and transfer process of network emotions in emergencies and reveal the internal mechanism of network emotion transmission,firstly,on the basis of the infectious disease SIR model,we consider the instability and regulatory of network emotions and add the temporary stabilization stage of network emotions.Secondly,the positive and negative emotion propagation model is constructed in the emergent network public opinion based on the improved SIR model.Then,through model solving and numerical simulation we explore the internal law of the spread of emotions on the Internet.Finally,the simulation results and the new crown epidemic case are combined to verify the effectiveness of the model.The study shows that in the infectious period of online sentiment in emergencies,Internet public opinion information is a key factor affecting the spread of Internet sentiment.In the outbreak of online sentiment,the government’s active guidance of online sentiment can effectively alleviate the negative sentiment of Internet users and reduce the negative impact of online emotions in real life.In the demise of online emotions,the degree of public opinion rebound is an important factor that causes the second outbreak of online emotions.The model can effectively predict the propagation and evolution process of negative and positive emotions in the online public opinion of emergencies,reveal the law of the spread of online emotions,and provide reliable suggestions for the guidance of online emotions.