中国海洋生态经济系统韧性的时空演化及障碍因素

Spatial and Temporal Changes and Obstacle Factors of Marine Ecological-Economic Resilience in China

以海洋生态经济系统为分析对象,从抵抗性、恢复性、脆弱性和适应性四个维度构建韧性评价体系,并综合采用模糊物元法、核密度估计和障碍度模型探究了11个沿海省份2007—2016年海洋生态经济系统韧性发展的时空演化与障碍因素。结果显示:沿海地区海洋生态经济系统的韧性水平早期提升较快,后期发展渐趋平稳,且呈现更加明显的集中化趋势。空间格局上,逐渐形成从山东至广东的高韧性区域,南北两侧省份的韧性水平偏低。具体到不同维度,上海、山东和广东的抵抗性水平较强,环渤海地区的恢复性水平较弱,珠三角地区的脆弱性水平普遍较强,但适应性能力较差。障碍因素方面,海洋生态响应和海洋经济活力是影响系统韧性提升的关键制约因素。

This paper takes the marine ecological-economic system as the research object and constructs the evaluation framework from four dimensions,that is,vulnerability,resistance,adaptability and recoverability.In order to explore the spatial-temporal evolution and obstacle factors of resilience in 11 coastal provinces,some approaches including fuzzy matter element method,kernel density estimation and obstacle degree model are used.The results show that:(1)The resilience level of the marine eco-economic system increased rapidly during early stage but then gradually stabilized with the trends of centralization from 2007 to 2016.(2)In terms of spatial pattern,high-resilience regions are distributed from Shandong to Guangdong while low-resilience areas are mainly located in north and south sides.(3)As for the four dimensions,Shanghai,Shandong and Guangdong have higher levels of resistance,but the Bohai Rim region has a weaker recovery ability.The Pearl River Delta region shows the higher level of vulnerability while with the lower level of adaptability.(4)With regard to obstacle factors,the marine ecological response and economic vitality are the key constraints affecting system resilience.