黄河流域农业生态效率与绿色全要素生产率耦合协调研究

Research on the Coupling Coordination of Agricultural Ecological Efficiency and Green Total Factor Productivity in the Yellow River Basin

为探究黄河流域农业生态效率与绿色全要素生产率耦合协调程度,基于2001—2019年省域数据,采用耦合协调模型评价黄河流域农业生态效率与绿色全要素生产率耦合协调度,并使用灰色关联模型对两者未来十年的耦合协调度进行预测。研究表明:研究期内黄河流域农业生态效率在时序上稳步增长,空间上黄河流域下游农业生态效率始终最高,上游有超越中游的趋势。耦合度从拮抗阶段提高至高水平耦合阶段,黄河流域下游率先进入磨合阶段与高水平耦合阶段,中游次之。耦合协调度在研究期内处于轻度失调衰退与勉强协调发展阶段,预测未来十年黄河流域将有一半以上的省区耦合协调度达到中级协调发展及以上,各省区之间呈现差异化耦合协调发展格局。

In order to explore the coupling coordination degree between agro-ecological efficiency and green total factor productivity in the Yellow River Basin,based on the provincial data from 2001 to 2019,the coupling coordination model was used to evaluate the coupling coordination degree between agro-ecological efficiency and green total factor productivity in the Yellow River Basin.The coupling coordination degree of the two in the next ten years is predicted.The research shows that the agro-ecological efficiency of the Yellow River Basin increased steadily in time series during the study period,and the agro-ecological efficiency of the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin was always the highest in space,and the upper reaches had a tendency to surpass the middle reaches.The coupling degree increased from the antagonistic stage to the high-level coupling stage,and the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin took the lead in entering the running-in stage and the high-level coupling stage,followed by the middle reaches.During the study period,the coupling coordination degree was in the stage of mild imbalanced decline and barely coordinated development.It is predicted that in the next ten years,more than half of the provinces in the Yellow River Basin will have intermediate coordinated development and above,and there will be differentiated coupling coordination among provinces’development patterns.