大国博弈背景下的美对华移民政策变化之探析

An Analysis of American Immigration Policy Change towards China in the Context of Major-Country Game

2020年以来,在“美国优先”理念的本土主义内核、大国竞争的外交逻辑和新冠肺炎疫情引发的跨境移民社会治理模式转变三重因素作用下,美国通过对中国的“全政府-全社会”的弹压将其对华移民政策进一步推入复杂深水区。从内因看,美国社会的移民承载力与包容度持续下行;从中美互动的情况看,双边关系尚未理顺,拜登政府的对华战略继续紧扣自由、规则与竞争。故而身处两国关键竞争领域的中国移民很难快速脱离“瓶颈期”。现有研究通常将美国移民政策及其调整的考察限定在美国社会层面,较少置于中美博弈的大框架下讨论,有鉴于此,本文聚焦美对华移民政策调整的国内-国际双重维度,首先以探讨美国将移民新政打造为撬动中美关系的杠杆的理论为起点,在此基础上概述当前美国对华移民政策的波动及转向,进而结合中美大局变迁和美国内移民承载力收缩的现实,阐释美对华移民政策波动的基本动因以及美国未来借移民政策改革扰动双边关系的可能性。

Since 2020,influenced by three factors,namely the idea of“American First”,the diplomatic logic of major-country competition and the transformation of social governance model for cross-border immigration triggered by COVID-19,the United States has pushed its immigration policy towards China further into complex deep-waters through its “whole government-whole society”pressure on China.From the domestic perspective,American society’s immigration capacity and tolerance continue to decline;from the perspective of China-US interaction,the bilateral relationship has not been straightened out,and the Biden administration’s China strategy continues to focus on freedom,rules,and competition.As a result,it is difficult for the Chinese immigrants caught in the key areas of competition between the two countries to quickly get out of the“bottleneck period”.Existing studies usually confine their investigation of American immigration policy and its adjustments to American domestic social level,and rarely discuss the issue under the framework of China-US game.Given the fact,this paper focuses on both domestic and international dimensions of American immigration policy adjustment towards China.Firstly,it starts by exploring the theory that the U.S.uses its new immigration policy as a lever for China-US relations,and on this basis,it summarizes the current fluctuation and shift of American immigration policy towards China.Then,this paper expounds the basic causes of the fluctuation of the US immigration policy towards China and the possibility that the U.S.may disturb its bilateral relations with China through immigration policy reform in the future in view of the overall changes in China and the U.S.,and shrinking capacity for immigration within the United States.