民粹主义浪潮下中东欧国家俄裔的身份分析——以拉脱维亚和爱沙尼亚为例

Identity Analysis of the Russian Diaspora in Central and Eastern European Countries in the Context of Rising Populism:the Cases of Latvia and Estonia

由于历史恩怨与现实威胁,俄罗斯少数族裔自中东欧转型以来就是一些国家建立独立民族认同的障碍,乌克兰危机后更是被视为潜在分裂国家的“特洛伊木马”。自难民危机以来,俄罗斯通过积极施展“政治捕获”这一隐性的外交手段,在保守主义繁荣的中东欧邻国弱化了右翼民粹—民族主义政党对俄裔的排斥与攻击。本文旨在探讨这一手段在俄裔身份地位提升中的作用。这一针对他国内部的“政治捕获”包括笼络右翼民粹政党、培植中左翼主流亲俄政党,以及影响选民偏好等三个策略。通过拉脱维亚和爱沙尼亚两个与俄裔民族矛盾较为严重国家的比较分析,上述三个策略得到验证,两国当前势头最盛的民粹政党对俄裔的排斥均较之前有明显下降。而所在国选民主要的议题需求和政党政治系统的差异性是俄罗斯选择运用何种具体策略的决定性因素。在民粹浪潮下的中东欧,通过多种政治捕获策略化解俄裔遭受民族排斥的事实性难题,是俄罗斯实现国家利益和民族利益的重要途径。

Due to historical grievances and real threats,the Russian Diaspora has been an obstacle for some Central and Eastern Europe(CEE)countries to establish an independent national identity since their transition,and seen more as a Trojan horse that would potentially divide the host country in the wake of the Ukraine crisis.Since the outbreak of refugee crisis,Russia has actively pursued an implicit diplomatic strategy of political capture to weaken the repulsion and attack on ethnic Russians by right-wing populist and nationalist parties in its CEE neighbors where conservatism is rife.This article is intended to examine the role of this strategy in promoting the status of ethnic Russians in these countries.This political capture strategy,targeting at neighboring countries,consists of three tactics:courting right-wing populist parties,cultivating mainstream center-left pro-Russian parties,and influencing voter preferences.These three tactics are validated by a comparative analysis of Latvia and Estonia,where rejection of ethnic Russians by populist parties used to be very strong,and now is significantly lower than before.Major issue demands of voters and differences in party systems in the host countries are decisive factors in Russia’s choice of specific tactics.Solving the factual dilemma of ethnic exclusion of the Russian Diaspora in the populist-ridden CEE countries through multiple political capture tactics is an important way for Russia to realize its national and ethnic interests.