融资需求、信贷约束与经济诈骗

Demand for Financing, Credit Constraints and Fraud Victimisation

本文基于有中国代表性的微观调查数据,分析居民受骗的区域分布情况,探究引致家庭受骗的经济特征。分析表明,经济发达地区的诈骗活动更活跃,经济落后地区诈骗受害者比例更高;融资需求和信贷约束是导致家庭受骗的重要因素:融资需求和信贷约束导致被骗的概率显著增加,这一结论经过稳健性检验、处理内生性问题后依然成立。进一步研究表明,正规金融发展的滞后强化了融资需求和受骗的正向关系。传导机制分析表明,融资需求导致个体更易参与风险投资,呈现更多的负面情绪;信贷约束越强的家庭,越倾向于参与社会活动、拓展社会关系,从而暴露在诈骗活动中的可能性越大。积极推进普惠金融、满足居民融资需求,对于防范经济诈骗,减少诈骗带来的损失有积极的政策意义。

Using nationally representative household survey data,this paper analyses the regional patterns of fraud victimisation and examines the determinants of fraud victimisation. Empirical evidence suggests that fraudulent activities are more intensive in economically developed regions and that there are more fraud victims in economically backward regions. We find that the demand for financing and credit constraints are two important determinants of fraud victimisation. The results are robust to a series of robustness checks dealing with the endogeneity problem. The positive relationship between demand for financing and likelihood of victimisation is reinforced by less developed formal finance services. Further analyses on potential mechanisms show that households with higher levels of demand for financing may invest more in high-risk portfolios and exhibit higher levels of negative emotion. In order to expand their social networks,households facing credit constraints may participate more in social activities,which in turn may increase their exposure to fraud schemes. The findings suggest that promoting the development of inclusive finance and satisfying residents’ demand for financing are of critical importance in preventing fraud victimisation and reducing the associated financial losses.