民国时期江苏无锡耕地面积变化原因分析——基于地租理论与空间自回归模型

Analysis on the Causes of Cultivated Land Change in Wuxi of Jiangsu Province During the Period of the Republic of China-Based On Land Rent Theory and Spatial Autoregressive Model

20世纪20年代到30年代是民国时期二五减租运动的开始与结束。江苏地区是二五减租的始发地之一,为了研究该时期耕地面积的变化原因,本文首先整合了该时期江苏省无锡市十一个村庄的农业经济史数据,利用数据进行空间向量自回归。根据格兰杰因果检验得出,在1927-1936年间,无锡市地租率变化是实际耕地面积变化的原因,农民工进城务工是实际耕地面积变化的原因。两者对实际耕地面积均呈现负相关作用。

The 1920s and 1930s were the beginning and end of the rent reduction movement during the period of the Republic of China. Jiangsu is one of the origins of the rent reduction in the period of "Five Year Plan". In order to study the reasons for the change of cultivated land area in this period, this paper first integrates the agricultural economic history data of 11 villages in Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province, and uses the data to carry out spatial vector autoregression. According to Granger causality test,from 1927 to 1936, the change of land rent rate was the cause of the change of the actual cultivated land area in Wuxi City, and the migrant workers were the cause of the change of the actual cultivated land area. Both of them have negative correlation with the actual cultivated land area.