“帝国怀旧”、地缘政治机会与土耳其外交的转折

“Nostalgia for the Empire”,Geopolitical Opportunities,and a Twist in Turkish Diplomacy

当前土耳其研究出现了强调奥斯曼帝国历史文化因素的“帝国转向”。针对2016年后土耳其在周边地区“四面出击”的外交新态势,本文尝试从国内社会思潮演变、区域地缘政治格局变迁两方面予以分析。在奥斯曼帝国遗产复兴、国内外环境出现极大不确定性、保守派政治势力趁机引导的背景下,土耳其国内对奥斯曼帝国历史的怀旧意愿不断增强,并最终产生“帝国怀旧”情绪,促使土耳其外交重心逐渐转向原奥斯曼帝国的领域范围(包括中东、北非、高加索等地区)。与此同时,周边地缘政治格局变化为埃尔多安和正发党政府实施“积极进取”的外交政策提供了机会窗口。在“帝国怀旧”和地缘政治机会的共同驱使下,土耳其积极介入地区事务,试图在原奥斯曼帝国领域范围内重塑其大国影响力。“帝国怀旧”虽然在一定程度上巩固了埃尔多安的执政基础,但历史与现实之间的巨大落差或将进一步加剧土耳其内政外交的既有困境。

An“imperial turn”is taking place in Turkish studies that emphasizes the historical and cultural factors of the Ottoman Empire.In view of Turkey’s diplomatic move of“hitting out in all directions”in its surrounding area after2016,this paper attempts to analyze Turkish diplomacy from two aspects:the shifts of Turkish political thoughts in its domestic domain and the changes in regional geopolitical pattern.Against the backgrounds of the revival of the Ottoman Empire’s heritages,the great uncertainty in the domestic and foreign environments,and the guidance of conservative political forces,Turkey’s domestic nostalgia for the Ottoman Empire has been increasing,which has eventually prompted the gradual shift of the focus of Turkish diplomacy onto the former Ottoman realm(including the Middle East,North Africa,the Caucasus,etc.).At the same time,the changes in the geopolitical pattern of the region have provided a window of opportunity for Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the AKP government to implement the“proactive”foreign policy.Driven by the combination of“nostalgia for the Empire”and geopolitical opportunities,Turkey has actively intervened in regional affairs,trying to reshape its great power influence within the sphere of the former Ottoman Empire.Although“nostalgia for the Empire”has consolidated Erdogan’s ruling foundations to a certain extent,the huge gap between history and reality may further exacerbate the existing dilemmas in Turkey’s domestic and foreign affairs.