浙江近海大黄鱼和带鱼产量的长期变化及资源评估:基于历史统计数据分析

Long-Term Change of Yield and Stock Assessment of Larimichthys crocea and Trichiurus lepturus in Zhejiang Coastal Waters Based on Historical Data

东海大黄鱼、带鱼的产量在中国近海占较大比重,由于缺乏连续的统计数据,这些经济鱼种的产量一直未能得到较好的评估,给该鱼种的渔业资源管理带来了一定风险。本文根据浙江省1950-1993年近40年的大黄鱼和带鱼渔获产量、渔船数量、鱼类价格等统计资料,构建了2种经济鱼种(大黄鱼、带鱼)的评估模型,量化了这些鱼种的最大可持续产量MSY(maximum sustainable yield),最大经济利润MEP(maximum economic profit),分析了1993年以前致使经济鱼种产量变化的主要影响因素,探讨了近40年间两大经济鱼种的动态变化机制。本文的研究结果对于了解历史上的渔业资源变动机制提供了一定的科学依据,也可为当下渔业资源修复和渔业管理提供参考依据。

The output of Larimichthys crocea and Trichiurus lepturus in the East China Sea accounts for more than half of China′s offshore fishery output.Due to the lack of continuous statistical data,the output of these economic fish species has not been well evaluated,which brings certain risks to the fishery resources management of this species.According to the statistical data of catch yield,number of fishing boats and fish price of L.crocea and T.lepturus in Zhejiang province from 1950 to 1993 in recent 40 years,this paper constructs the evaluation model of two economic fish species(L.crocea and T.lepturus),quantifies the maximum sustainable yield maximum and maximum economic profit of these fish species,analyzes the main influencing factors of economic fish species change before 1993,and probes into the two economic fish species changes in recent 40 years.The research results of this paper provide a scientific basis for understanding the mechanism of fishery resources change in history,and also provide a reference basis for the current fishery resources restoration and fishery management.