金融科技、宏观审慎监管与我国银行系统性风险

FinTech,Macro-Prudential Supervision and Systemic Risks of China's Banks

金融科技的迅猛发展给金融业带来了深远变革,与此同时金融科技可能引发潜在的系统性金融风险,受到了金融监管部门的高度重视。本文基于2013—2020年我国上市银行微观数据,深入分析了金融科技发展对我国银行系统性风险的影响及其机制。研究表明,微观银行金融科技水平提升会增加银行风险承担倾向、加深银行间关联程度,进而导致其系统性金融风险显著放大,且这种影响具有时滞性和持续性。此外,异质性分析发现,金融科技对国有银行与其他银行的影响程度存在差异,国有银行在金融科技水平提升时边际风险更低。进一步研究表明,加强宏观审慎监管能有效削弱金融科技的系统性风险溢出效应。多种稳健性分析表明,本文结论具有较好的稳健性。本文研究对我国在发展金融科技的同时防范银行系统性风险具有重要的理论和政策意义。

In recent years,the rapid developme nt of Fin Tech has brought far-reaching changes to the financial industry.At the same time,FinTech may cause potential systemic financial risks,which has aroused high attention from financial regulatory authorities.Based on the micro data of China's listed banks from 2013 to 2020,this article analyzes the impact of FinTech development on China's banking systemic risk and its mechanism,and whether strengthening macro-prudential supervision can help control the negative impact of FinTech.Our research shows that,for the micro-bank,the improvement of FinTech has significantly increased its marginal contribution to systemic risks and the improving FinTech level of the bank amplifies its systemic risk through two channels:increasing its risk-taking and strengthening the inter-bank linkage.We also find that strengthening macro-prudential supervision can effectively reduce the systemic risk spillover effect of FinTech.In addition,the heterogeneity analysis shows that the impacts of FinTech on the five major state-owned banks and other banks are heterogeneous,and the risk spillover effect of the five major state-owned banks is smaller when the level of FinTech improves.Robustness analysis shows that our conclusions are relatively robust.The research in this paper has important theoretical and policy significance for the prevention of banking systemic risks while developing financial technology in our country.