子女性别结构如何影响家庭负债

How Does the Gender of Children Affect Household Debt?

本文利用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据研究发现,家庭负债与户主年龄关系是一个接近“M形”的双峰结构,即家庭负债水平在户主30岁前后达到最高并持续下降,在50岁左右再度上升,这种现象在民间借贷中表现得更为明显。通过CFPS数据进行实证研究发现:造成中年以后负债再次上升的原因与家庭子女及其性别结构有关。相比有女儿的家庭,有儿子的中年家庭负债更高,这一点在性别比更高的农村地区尤为典型。为此我们提出“竞争性负债”的假说:最近十多年来随着房价持续飞涨,男性婚姻成本大幅上升,父母从原先“主动储蓄”转向“被动负债”,通过为子女购置婚房等获得婚姻市场优势地位。农村和较低收入家庭更容易受到正规信贷约束,只能更多求助民间借贷。考虑子女性别结构不仅为理解我国家庭负债行为提供了一个新视角,更对当前家庭负债风险防控带来重要启示。

A look into the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)data shows that the relation between the Chinese household indebtedness and the age of the household's head is"M-shaped".When the household's head is in his/her 30s,household indebtedness would peak and decline.Nevertheless,the household might get into debt when the household head is about 50.We figure out that sons are more likely than daughters to be the reason why middle-aged parents are in the red by looking into the CFPS data about the households whose heads are in the age group of 40-60 years and especially those in the areas with a relatively high local sex ratio.Based on Wei and Zhang(2011),we propose a " competitive borrowing hypothesis":Due to the gender imbalance and rising property prices in recent 10 years,men have tended to face the increasingly unaffordable marriage cost.And in order to buy a matrimonial home as a signal of competitiveness for their children,parents are forced to be more indebted.For those credit-constrained households,such as rural and low-income households,informal credit might be the only option.Considering the gender structure of children not only offers a new perspective for understanding family debt behavior in China,but also sheds light on the household debt risk control at present.