长江流域新型城镇化耦合协调度时空分异与空间集聚

Spatial-temporal Differentiation and Spatial Agglomeration of New Urbanization Coupling Coordination Degree in Yangtze Basin

从长江流域协同发展与新型城镇化发展角度考虑,如何促进区域城镇化有序、适度及协调建设,是亟待解决的科学问题。以长江流域105个地级市为研究对象,基于熵值法构建人口、土地、经济、社会、生态环境城镇化的五维耦合协调度指标体系。依托ArcGIS平台,运用耦合协调度模型、核密度估计及探索性空间数据分析方法探究长江流域城镇化耦合协调度的时空分异特征、空间聚类格局及影响因素。结果表明:(1)2008~2018年,长江流域城镇化耦合协调度的标准差和变异系数均有下降,各地级市间城镇化耦合协调度的离散程度趋于缩小态势。(2)耦合协调度良好及以上的地级市主要位于长江三角洲、合肥与皖江沿线、武汉城市圈、长沙城市圈、成渝城市群等地。耦合协调度失调的地级市主要位于长江源头地区、川西—藏东—滇北横断山区、甘肃陇南、乌蒙山区、雪峰山区、罗霄山区等地。(3)长江流域城镇化耦合协调度空间集聚可划分为热点聚集型、中部发展型、冷点聚集型、边缘游离型4种类型,人力资本、交通建设、经济增长、产业结构、地理特征因素在很大程度上塑造了耦合协调度的区域格局。基于城镇化多维耦合协调发展,本研究提出了相应的政策建议。

Considering the current coordinated development of the Yangtze Basin and the development of new urbanization,how to promote the orderly,moderate and coordinated construction of regional urbanization is a scientific problem that needs to be solved urgently.Taking 105 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze Basin as the research object,a five-dimensional comprehensive evaluation index system of population,land,economy,society and ecological environment urbanization was constructed based on the entropy method.The coupling coordination model,kernel density estimation and exploratory spatial data analysis methods were used to explore the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics,spatial clustering pattern and influencing factors of the urbanization coupling coordination in the Yangtze Basin.The results showed that:(1) From 2008 to 2018,the standard deviation and coefficient of variation of the urbanization coupling coordination degree in the Yangtze Basin declined,and the dispersion degree of the urbanization coupling coordination degree among prefecture-level cities tended to shrink.(2) Prefecture-level cities with good coupling coordination degree and above were mainly located in the Yangtze River Delta,Hefei and Wanjiang,Wuhan city circle,Changsha city circle,Chengdu-Chongqing city group and other places.The prefecture-level cities with uncoordinated coupling coordination mainly included the source region of the Yangtze River,the western Sichuan,eastern Tibet,Hengduan Mountain in NorthernYunnan,Longnan,Wumeng Mountain,Xuefeng Mountain,Luoxiao Mountain,etc.(3) The spatial aggregation of urbanization coupling coordination could be divided into four types.Human capital,transportation construction,economic growth,industrial structure,and geographical characteristics shaped the regional pattern of urbanization coupling coordination.Based on the multi-dimensional coupling and coordinated development of urbanization,this study put forward corresponding policy recommendations.