基于产业发展和城市化视角的中西部区域碳减排研究——空间计量经济模型实证

Study on Carbon Emission Reduction of Central and West Regions from Perspectives of Industrial Development and Urbanization:Empirical Study on Spatial Econometric Model

在2060年实现碳中和目标背景下,中西部地区生态和经济可持续发展的双重压力亟需缓解。为此,基于产业发展和城市化的视角,运用中西部地区2000~2018年的省级面板数据,构建空间滞后模型,模拟产业发展,城市化与碳排放之间的空间作用关系。结果表明:(1)我国中西部区域碳排放持续增长,空间差异性和溢出效应显著,呈现出“高-高”(H-H)和“低-低”(L-L)空间分布特征;(2)中西部区域产业发展和城市化对碳排放具有重要的作用关系,但产业结构高级化具有明显趋同性,经济和人口城市化均质性明显;(3)产业资源配置(TL)优化和产业结构高级化(TS)皆有利于碳减排,且空间效应显著,当前优化TL比TS升级对碳减排更具有效;(4)经济城市化(UI)抑制碳减排,人口城市化(UP)有利于碳减排。研究结果和发现表明,中西部地区优化产业发展时,现阶段应加大力度优化产业资源配置水平;同时,政府应逐步推进能源结构转型,引导城市居民能源消耗,倡导绿色消费,进而促进碳减排。

It is significant for achieving the goal of carbon neutrality in 2060 by alleviating the dual pressures of ecological and economic sustainable development in the central and west regions.Therefore,from the perspectives of the industrial development and urbanization,we build a Spatial Lag Model to simulate the spatial relationship between industrial development and carbon emissions,and between urbanization and carbon emissions,using the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2018 in the central and west regions.The results show that:(1) continuously increasing carbon emissions in the central and west regions show obvious spatial differences and spillover effects,with the characteristics of “high-high”(H-H) and “low-low”(L-L) spatial distribution.(2) Industrial development and urbanization affect carbon emission,but the industrial structure upgrading has been growingly homogenized,and urbanization has been homogenous in the central and west regions.(3) Promoting resource allocation(TL) and upgrading industrial structure(TS) are conducive to the mitigation of carbon emissions.Currently,optimizing TL is more effective than upgrading TS in carbon emission reduction;(4) Growing economic urbanization(UI) increases carbon emissions,while increasing population urbanization(UP) reduces carbon emissions.The results suggest that,in order to optimize the industrial development in the central and west regions,local governments should focus on promote the industrial resource allocation at this stage when upgrading the TS.At the same time,the central and local governments should promote the transformation of energy structure,and guide energy consumption of urban and rural residents by advocating green consumption,in order to reduce carbon emissions.