房地产限购政策会降低地方政府债务规模吗——来自333个城市的证据

Will the Housing Purchase Restriction Policy Reduce the Scale of Local Government Debt:Based on the Data from 333 Cities

房地产限购政策不仅会影响房价,也会对地方政府债务规模产生影响。基于2014—2018年333个地级市政府债务余额数据,采用多期双重差分法研究房地产限购政策对城市层面地方政府债务规模的影响。研究发现:房地产限购政策会导致地方政府债务规模减少,限购政策对省会城市和非省会城市的影响程度不同,对经济发达地区影响更加显著;此外,对于经济较发达的中心城市特别是行政中心城市,房地产限购政策抑制本地债务扩张的作用更加明显。在我国经济进入高质量发展的新阶段,应坚持差别化地运用房地产限购政策,以期对不同地区的房地产市场调控和债务管理起到双向调节作用。

The housing purchase restriction policy will not only affect house prices, but also affect the scale of local government debt. Based on the debt balance data of 333 prefecture level cities from 2014 to 2018, the multi period DID method is used to study the impact of housing purchase restriction policy on the scale of local government debt at the urban level. It is found that, the housing purchase restriction policy will reduce the scale of local government debt;the impact of the purchase restriction policy on provincial capital cities and non-provincial capital cities is different, and the impact on economically developed areas is more significant;in addition, for economically developed central cities, especially administrative central cities, the role of the purchase restriction policy in inhibiting local debt expansion is more significant. This paper suggests that when China’s economy is in the advent of high-quality development, the differentiated policy of housing market regulation and debt management in different regions should be implemented.