货币投向与经济周期形成机制再认识

Study on the Relationship of Fictitious Economy and Real Economy from the Perspective of Economic Cycles

20世纪70年代以来,实体经济与虚拟经济的全球化发展对当前国际经济格局产生了重要影响,二者结构性“脱节”已成为制约我国经济高质量发展的重要问题,也是造成经济震荡的重要根源。影响实体经济与虚拟经济背离关系的首要因素是货币在各经济领域的投放比例差异。在此背景下,本文从货币投向角度构建修正的货币数量论模型,分析经济周期形成的必然性,阐述货币通过财富效应、资本市场流动性效应和托宾q效应对实体经济与虚拟经济背离的影响路径,研究由货币投向比例差异引导经济周期在繁荣、衰退、萧条、复苏之间循环往复地形成机制,并在此基础上提出相应的政策性建议。

Since the 1970s,the globalization of the real economy and the fictitious economy has had an important impact on the current international economic landscape.The structural“disconnection”between the two has become an important issue restricting the high-quality development of our economy and an important cause of economic shocks.The primary factor influencing the divergence between the real economy and the fictitious economy is the difference in the proportion of money invested in various economic fields.The paper,from the perspective of currency investment,builds a revised monetary quantity theory model,analyzes the necessity of economic cycle formation,and explains the divergence of currency from the real economy and the fictitious economy through the wealth effect,capital market liquidity effect,and Tobin q effect,studies the formation mechanism of the cycle of economic cycles between prosperity,recession,depression and recovery,which guided by the difference in the proportion of currency investment.On this basis,targeted policy recommendations are proposed.