FDI水平溢出、自主研发对工业产出的影响——基于粤港澳大湾区面板数据的多维门槛效应检验

IMPACTS OF FDI OVERFLOWING,INDEPENDENT RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT ON INDUSTRIAL OUTPUTS BASED ON MULTI-DIMENSIONAL THRESHOLD EFFECTS OF GUANGDONG-HONGKONG-MACAO GREATER BAY AREA PANEL DATA

充分利用技术溢出效应对激发粤港澳大湾区工业增长新动能具有重要意义。利用2008—2018年湾区工业指标数据,基于知识溢出模型和门槛效应模型,分析FDI水平溢出、自主研发及对湾区工业产出的影响及其门槛特征,并进一步探讨自主研发与水平溢出交互效应对产出增长的影响。研究结果表明:自主研发和FDI对人力资本流动、示范模仿、竞争的促进作用与工业产出均呈正相关,而传统生产要素对产出增长的贡献较弱;交互效应方面,自主研发对示范模仿效应表现出正向协同效应,对人力资本流动效应表现出负向调节作用;门槛特征方面,示范模仿效应、竞争效应为单一门槛,分阶段影响系数分别为0.257、0.240和1.369、0.366,自主研发为双重门槛,分阶段影响系数分别为0.278、0.247、0.264。在跨越门槛值后,竞争效应对产出增长的贡献率下降明显,示范模仿效应和自主研发则发生轻微调整。在经济高质量发展的背景下,应进一步鼓励人力资本投入和企业自主研发,提升外资规模和质量。

Use of technical overflowing is key to Guangdong-Hongkong-Macao Greater Bay Area’s industrial growth. This paper uses Bay’s 2008 to 2018 industrial data, uses knowledge overflowing model and threshold effect model to analyze FDI overflowing, independent research & development and impacts of independent research & development on Bay’s industrial outputs and its threshold, and studies the impacts of interactive independent research & development and technical overflowing on outputs. Independent research and development is positively correlated with human capital flowing, demonstrating mimic, competitiveness, but the traditional production elements have a less contribution to the production growth. Regarding interactive effect, independent research & development shows a positive co-integrated effect on demonstrating mimic, negative on human capital flowing. As for threshold, demonstrating mimic effect and competition effect have single threshold with staged impacting coefficients at 0.257 and 0.240 &1.369 and 0.366, while independent research & development has dual threshold at 0.278, 0.247 and 0.264. Over the threshold values, competition effect exerts a less contribution to output growth, while demonstrating mimic effect and independent research & development slightly adjust the output growth. A quality economic development should encourage human capital inputs and independent research & development, and increase foreign capital size and quality.