中国入境旅游与经济增长的非对称关系及其启示

Research and enlightenment on the asymmetric relationship between inbound tourism and economic growth in China

入境旅游与经济增长的关系研究已成为旅游经济研究的热点问题之一。基于2000—2018年的季度数据,运用QQ分位数回归模型,对中国入境旅游与经济增长间的关系进行了研究。研究表明:1)中国入境旅游与经济增长的关系呈非对称性,且随着二者所处的时期呈阶段性变化,在两个变量的极端分位数处联系最为密切。2)入境旅游在国民经济体系中功能的转变、对经济的依赖性均可造成经济增长波动对入境旅游的影响强于其逆向影响。3)不利的经济或入境旅游发展环境下,入境旅游与经济增长的相互抑制效应强于促进效应.

The research on the relationship between inbound tourism development and economic growth has become one of the hot issues in tourism economic research.Based on the quarterly data from 2000 to 2018,this paper uses Quantile-on-Quantile(QQ)approach to study the relationship between inbound tourism and economic growth in China.The research shows that:(1)The relationship between China's inbound tourism development and economic growth is asymmetric.And the relationship changes in stages with the period inwhichthetwovariablesarelocated,especially in the extreme quantiles of the two variables.(2)The change of inbound tourism's function in the national economic system and its dependence on the economy can cause the fluctuation of economic growth to have a stronger impact on inbound tourism than its reverse impact.(3)under the unfavorable economic or inbound tourism development environment,the mutual inhibition effect between inbound tourism development and economic growth is stronger than the promotion effect.