科技创新、产业结构、环境规制与碳排放强度的交互效应——基于省级面板协整和PECM模型的实证分析

Interaction Between Scientific and Technological Innovation,Industrial Structure,Environmental Regulation and Carbon Emission Intensity:Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Co-integration and PECM Model

“双碳”背景下,科技创新、产业结构和环境规制备受关注.该文基于我国2003—2017年的省级面板数据,利用面板协整和面板误差修正模型(PECM),对科技创新、产业结构、环境规制与碳排放强度之间的交互效应进行了实证分析.结果发现,在短期关系中,碳排放强度与环境规制不具有因果关系;碳排放强度对科技创新、科技创新对产业结构、产业结构对环境规制、科技创新对环境规制分别具有单向因果关系;碳排放强度与产业结构具有双向因果关系.在长期关系中,碳排放强度、科技创新、产业结构、环境规制两两相互影响,蕴含着多个双向环形因果关系.

Under the background of“double carbon”,scientific and technological innovation,industrial structure and environmental regulation have attracted much attention.Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2003 to 2017,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the interaction between scientific and technological innovation,industrial structure,environmental regulation and carbon emission intensity by using panel co-integration and panel error correction model(PECM).The results show that in the short-term relationship,there is no causal relationship between carbon emission intensity and environmental regulation;carbon emission intensity has a one-way causal relationship between scientific and technological innovation,scientific and technological innovation to industrial structure,industrial structure to environmental regulation,and scientific and technological innovation to environmental regulation;carbon emission intensity and industrial structure have a two-way causal relationship.In the long-term relationship,carbon emission intensity,scientific and technological innovation,industrial structure and environmental regulation influence each other,which contains multiple two-way circular causality.