产业结构视角下政策不确定性对经济波动的影响——基于门限效应的实证分析

The Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Economic Fluctuations from the Perspective of Industrial Structure——Empirical Analysis Based on Threshold Effect

本文从产业结构视角探究经济政策不确定性对经济波动的非对称性影响,理论分析发现经济政策不确定性主要通过消费需求和投资需求影响到经济波动,产业结构分别通过要素再配置效应、产品调整效应和需求收入弹性效应改变经济政策不确定性对经济波动的影响。基于1992Q2-2019Q4中国经济政策不确定性指数以及其他宏观经济变量的季度数据,本文构建一个四变量VAR模型,结果显示经济政策不确定性对经济波动、消费需求和投资需求均存在负向冲击。进一步构建三个三变量TVAR模型,检验经济政策不确定性对经济波动的负向冲击是否受到产业结构的变迁速度、合理化和高级化三个维度的门限影响。研究结果表明,高区制的产业结构变迁速度和产业结构高级化水平都加剧了此类负向冲击,而高区制的产业结构合理化水平具有平抑此类负向冲击的作用。

In this paper,From the new perspective of industrial structure to explore the asymmetrical influence of economic policy uncertainty on economic fluctuations.Theoretical analysis shows that economic policy uncertainty affects economic fluctuations mainly through consumption demand and investment demand.Industrial structure changes the influence of economic policy uncertainty on economic fluctuations through factor reallocation effect,product adjustment effect and demand income elasticity effect,respectively.Based on the quarterly data of China′s economic policy uncertainty index and other macroeconomic variables from 1992Q2-2019Q4,this paper constructs a VAR model.The empirical results show that economic policy uncertainty has a negative impact on economic fluctuations,consumer demand and investment demand.Further,this paper constructs the TVAR models to test whether the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on economic fluctuations is affected by the three dimensions of the change speed of the industrial structure,the rationalization of the industrial structure and the upgrading of the industrial structure.The results show that the high zone system of the chang speed of industrial structure and the upgrading of the industrial structure both aggravate this type of negative impact,and the rationalization of industrial structure with the high zone system can suppress this type of negative impact.